2019 MLB Player Prop Mega List, More Value Picks

2019 MLB Player Prop Mega List, More Value Picks article feature image
Credit:

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Sale.

  • More than 400 additional 2019 MLB player props were released a few days ago.
  • Mark Gallant found 15 that he liked and explains his reasons for taking every one.

MLB player props have been gradually trickling out here and there over the past few weeks — nothing too crazy. Well, that changed on Friday, when one book released over 400 MLB season long player prop over/unders. Christmas morning for your boy over here.

Though it took me a couple hours just going through and assessing them, I landed on 15 to add to my laundry list of bets I’ve already made. Maybe I’ll add more before the season starts, you never know!

Home Runs

Home run props are certainly my favorite. There are tons to choose from and, for the most part, have some degree of predictability. A couple weeks back I dedicated an entire article to ten home run props that I took when they were released at another book. Some of the numbers are still out there, others aren’t.

However, six more caught my eye when this girthy selection of props was unveiled.

Mike Moustakas under 30.5: My original list contained two Brewers unders (Yelich and Aguilar), but I’m adding Mike Moustakas to the hopper. The Moose fell from 38 to 28 home runs last year, hitting only eight in 54 games with the Brewers. This was the second consecutive offseason in which his services weren’t really sought after, but the Brew Crew decided to bring him back even with an already crowded infield. Despite his burly stature, he’s set to be their second basemen, but I see him having trouble reaching the ~150 games and ~600 plate appearances he’s posted in each of the past two seasons, as they have a very good 2B prospect in Keston Hiura that is essentially MLB-ready. If Moustakas has any struggles at the plate, the Brewers could begin playing a more reliable glove to improve their infield defense.

Joc Pederson under 24.5: If Joc were guaranteed to play every day, I think 24.5 would be a fair number. In his three relatively-full seasons, he’s posted 26, 25 and 25 home runs. In 2017 when he played just over 100 games, he hit only 11. This year he’ll need to perform to get consistent appearances. The Dodgers dealt Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, but have essentially replaced them with A.J. Pollock and top prospect Alex Verdugo, who’s expected to make the opening day roster and get regular at-bats. Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez can all play the outfield, too. With so many solid players fighting for playing time, Pederson will have trouble reaching 25 jacks again.

Jed Lowrie under 16.5: Now a New York Met, Jed Lowrie is already off to a bad start to the year. He’s been dealing with a knee problem all spring and is just now doing “light agility work.” Pete Alonso has proved that he deserves to be the everyday first baseman. Robinson Cano is at second. The also-ailing Todd Frazier can play first or third, while J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil can also play third. Though Lowrie is coming off a career high 23 jacks, the almost-35-year-old infielder needed nearly 700 plate appearances to get there. He’s topped 16.5 only that one time and I doubt he’ll be able to repeat the feat again.

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