Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Jimmie Johnson
- Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3 p.m. ET, FS1) will take place at Sonoma Raceway, a road course track that is tough for bookmakers to peg.
- Nick Giffen analyzes a few matchup bets that are mispriced due to the unique nature of the track.
Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3 p.m. ET, FS1) provides bettors with an opportunity to find value all over the board. That’s because road course racing — and Sonoma in particular — is so unique that the stats that matter at other tracks don’t come into play as much here, yet the betting market still values these stats. This translates to lines that are out of whack with predictive models.
One former series champion who is also a Sonoma winner is particularly undervalued, and I’m trying to bet him anywhere I can. At the time of writing, only a few books are offering head-to-head matchups, so keep an eye out throughout Sunday for updates to this article as more books add Cup Series prop bets.