Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3 p.m. ET, FS1) provides bettors with an opportunity to find value all over the board. That's because road course racing — and Sonoma in particular — is so unique that the stats that matter at other tracks don't come into play as much here, yet the betting market still values these stats. This translates to lines that are out of whack with predictive models.
One former series champion who is also a Sonoma winner is particularly undervalued, and I'm trying to bet him anywhere I can. At the time of writing, only a few books are offering head-to-head matchups, so keep an eye out throughout Sunday for updates to this article as more books add Cup Series prop bets.
Jimmie Johnson +110 over Daniel Suarez, +130 over Ryan Blaney
As I mentioned in the futures article, Johnson is completely undervalued this weekend. For the same reasons I wrote in the other article, Johnson should be favored over both of these drivers. If you're more risk-averse, or less inclined to bet Johnson over these two drivers plus Brad Keselowski in the group match, these head-to-head props will instead give you a greater chance of winning.
I prefer the Johnson over Suarez prop, because my models show this matchups is not even close. Johnson is not only undervalued, but Suarez is overvalued and Johnson should be a heavy favorite. Johnson is also a slight favorite over Blaney per my models, which makes the +130 line a nice value.
I'd bet Johnson down to -130 over Suarez and even money against Blaney to keep an edge.
Sunday Additions
- Joey Logano +135 over Chase Elliott: Bet down to +125
- Clint Bowyer +124 over Martin Truex Jr.: Bet down to +110
