I’ve had a terrible year of gambling.
After struggling with college basketball for so many months, I decided it was time to throw out my old system and try on a new one. Adapt or die, as they say.
So, I spent the Summer trying to learn more about the numbers.
The result of countless hours of research and self-teaching? The Action Network’s own set of college basketball power ratings, and a simple score prediction model we can apply to any game of the 2025-26 season.
I’ll be updating this article daily with our projected scores, arranged from the biggest projected home favorite to the biggest projected home underdog. Feel free to bookmark this page and revisit while handicapping.
A couple of essential things to note:
- This project is far from complete. I’ll be spending countless more hours tweaking the input data and algorithm. I already ran into some snags in the preseason, which resulted in a significant reduction in input data. Hopefully, we can quickly remedy that and fix any other issues we come across. I’ll be sure to share any updates in this column.
- One of those current issues is a slight under-projection of some overwhelming favorites. I don’t think we’re accurately reflecting the difference in strength between teams on the extremes (for example, Houston vs. Lehigh, where we project the spread five points below the market).
- Home-court advantage has been adjusted for, and I have filtered that out for games on neutral courts.
- We’re still working on how to incorporate injury adjustments into the daily projections. For now, all of these projections are under the assumption that both teams are at full strength, so please keep injury reports in mind.
Also, while I’ll mostly be just updating the numbers each day, if there are games that intrigue me and show value, I’ll provide some matchup news and notes at the end.
Best of luck this season, everyone!
College Basketball Projections for Monday, November 3
Florida vs Arizona Projection, Pick
8 p.m. ET, TNT
- Market: Florida -4
- Our projection: Florida -1.66
I was happily surprised to see the numbers show a few points of spread value on the Wildcats, as I agree with the metrics.
This will be a fantastic matchup between two top-10 (arguably top-five) teams. These two play very similarly — this will be a matchup of strength against strength. Both run transition-and-rim-reliant offenses while also being excellent in rim-and-transition denial on the other end. Both are elite offensive rebounding teams, and both are a tad vulnerable on the defensive glass.
Florida boasts arguably the nation's best frontcourt, returning four monstrous two-way paint players. (Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, Micah Handlogten).
However, Arizona is one of the few teams nationally that can match the Gators' interior physicality. Tobe Awaka and Motiejus Krivas form an uber-underrated center platoon. The 'Cats were an elite rim defense last season (21.6 possessions per game allowed, 16th percentile; 1.05 PPP allowed, 92nd percentile). Arizona also graded out well in DHO defense (.69 PPP allowed, 89th percentile), which is imperative against the Gators' motion offense, which leverages the frontcourt pieces in screens to open up the lane for cuts.
Additionally, the duo is also underrated on the offensive end, as both are good finishers and borderline-elite post-up creators (Awaka 1.1 PPP, 90th percentile; Krivas .90 PPP, 62nd percentile). Interestingly, Florida did not grade out super well in straight post-up defense last season (.90 PPP allowed, 34th percentile), which could be a sneaky advantage for the 'Cats.
Not to mention the Wildcats will pair the center tandem with five-star freshman forward Koa Peat, a dark horse All-American candidate with overwhelming strength and athleticism. If he plays up to his potential, the Wildcats will give the elite Florida frontcourt everything it can handle, especially on the defensive end.
My worries with Florida lie in the backcourt.
Arkansas transfer Boogie Fland is a tremendous all-around player, both on and off the ball. Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee is an electric on-ball playmaker.
But the problem lies in fit. I think you'd rather play Fland on-ball, but you can't play Lee off-ball, as he's poor in secondary creation and in catch-and-shoot situations (.78 PPP, 19th percentile).
Additionally, Lee is a poor defender, and both struggle to finish at the rim, which could be a massive problem in a rim-oriented offense.
While they're not as talented, I think I trust the Wildcats' backcourt more.
Jaden Bradley is an explosive two-way, transition-happy player who can be an above-average ball-screen manipulator (.85 PPP, 65th percentile) — he averaged four assists and two steals per game last season while not turning it over too much. Five-star freshman Brayden Burries looks like a sure thing as a secondary ball-handler. Those two together in this up-tempo, downhill, balanced ball-screen and post offense could be elite.
Moreover, it seems that Todd Golden plans to play Haugh at the three. While he'll undoubtedly find offensive mismatches against Anthony Dell'Orso and Arizona's questionable wing corps, I think he might give it all back and more in ball-screen coverage on the other end (1.00 PPP allowed, 15th percentile).
That gives Tommy Lloyd plenty of options to attack on offense. Bradley and Peat should find plenty of mismatches on the offensive end, where the Gators might be overly reliant on the good-but-not-great Fland as a POA defender. And the 'Cats should be able to run offense through the post.
The biggest issue for Arizona will be its wings in on-ball and off-ball screen coverage, but I don't trust Florida's fresh-faced backcourt to take advantage.
Ultimately, I think Arizona can hang in the frontcourt, while I don't trust Florida's backcourt. That seems to align with our projections.
Pick: Arizona +4 (-110, Caesars)
Penn State vs Fairfield Projection, Pick
8 p.m. ET, B1G+
- Market: Penn State -15
- Our Projection: Penn State -19
While Fairfield got plenty more talented in the off-season, we still project the Stags as the MAAC's fourth-worst team.
They're severely lacking in top-end size and strength, which is problematic after they were ripped apart at the rim last season.
While Penn State isn't good (the third-worst team in the Big 10), I have high hopes for some of the Lions' freshmen, especially Melih Tuca and Kayden Mingo.
Mike Rhoades will likely leverage those two as the primary creators in a super-duper heavy downhill ball-screen offense. That could be a problem for Fairfield, which can't protect the rim and struggles to defend ball screens (.99 PPP allowed, 4th percentile).
A four-point difference between the market and our projections might be worth playing.
Pick: Penn State -15 (-110, Hard Rock)
Xavier vs Marist Projection, Pick
8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN+
- Market: Xavier -11.5
- Our projection: Xavier -17.88
I have immense respect for Marist. I think the Red Foxes have far and away the best defense in the MAAC and one of the most disciplined drop-coverage defenses in the nation.
But we are way off market with this projection, so I'll take a shot.
I don't know what to expect from Richard Pitino's fresh-faced squad, but I suspect the Musketeers will play super fast, which could catch Marist's questionable transition defense off balance — the Red Foxes are typically elite in transition denial but can still struggle on a per-possession basis (1.04 PPP allowed, 47th percentile).
Meanwhile, I don't know how Marist scores against anyone this season. The Red Foxes were a disaster on that end last year and lost uber-productive guard Josh Pascarelli in the off-season.
Pick: Xavier -11.5 (-110, DraftKings)
