NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Chargers and 49ers To Cover Their Spreads vs. Eagles and Cardinals
Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
Update: With quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins officially ruled out, Cardinals-49ers odds have moved since our analyst picked San Francisco to cover. The spread now sits between 49ers -4 and -5.5, which exceeds the range our analyst would recommend betting them at.
Our other analyst’s Chargers pick, however, is still within range — in fact, you can bet them as low as a pick’em now (shop for the best real-time line here).
Chargers at Eagles
Chris Raybon: After I faded the Chargers in a tough matchup against Bill Belichick’s defense last week, I’m buying low on them this week while selling high on the Eagles, who are coming off a 44-6 rout of the Lions.
While the Eagles looked good last week, they’ve been outscored 179-127 by all opponents not named the Lions and Falcons. And whereas Belichick and Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martin presented difficult schemes that feature a heavy dose of man coverage, the Eagles are perhaps the NFL’s easiest defense to prepare for — they play zone at the third-highest rate in a bend-but-don’t-break style that still breaks while ranking 26th in third-down conversion rate (43.6%) and 29th in red-zone conversion rate (74.1%).
The Chargers are the better team on both sides of the ball, ranking 12th in Football Outsiders’ offensive and defensive DVOA while the Eagles rank 15th and 16th, respectively — a gap that may be at its closest point with the Chargers coming off two losses and the Eagles coming off a blowout win of one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Since 2016, home teams .500 or below coming off a blowout win of 16 or more points are just 16-27-2 (37%) against the spread (ATS), per our Action Labs data.
I would bet the Chargers to -3.
Cardinals at 49ers
Raheem Palmer: This bet hinges on the availability of the Cardinals’ signal-caller.
The last time they matched up against the 49ers, Arizona was out-gained in yardage (338-304) and yards per play (5.7-5.1) — meaning the Cardinals were fortunate to win thanks to the 49ers going 1-of-5 on fourth down, including a stop at the goal line and multiple stops inside of Cardinals territory.
Looking at the boxscore, it’s clear the 49ers should have won that game, or covered at the very least.
Now they meet again with neither Kyler Murray (ankle) or DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) logging even a limited practice all week. Making matters worse, J.J. Watt is out after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, meaning the 49ers’ biggest advantage should be their ability to run on a Cardinals defense that’s giving up the second-most yards per carry (4.9) in the league and ranks 22nd in rushing success rate.
With home-field advantage decreasing in value, this feels like the perfect spot for the 49ers to avenge their Week 5 loss to the Cardinals. In addition, head coach Kyle Shanahan thrives in the role of underdog, going 27-17 (57.5%) in this spot over his career, so the trends also back up our football handicap.
I would only bet this to -3 if Murray — who is a game-time decision — doesn’t start.