Falcons vs. Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Josh Allen, Buffalo Cover Sizable Spread In NFL Week 17?
Omar Rawlings/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.
- The Bills are up to 14.5-point favorites against the Falcons in Week 17. Is there an edge on either side of this spread?
- Our analyst breaks down the latest Falcons vs. Bills odds in order to make his picks and predictions for Sunday's game.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
The Falcons are coming off a win against Detroit where they were able to force two late goal-line stops. Finding a way to hold on and win has been this team’s M.O. all season. All of the Falcons’ wins have been one-possession games, while only two of their losses have ended within one score. We will see if they can continue squeaking out wins and keep their playoff hopes alive.
The Bills have their own divisional fate in their hands, thanks to a 33-21 victory over New England last week. The odds of holding on are in their favor too. Buffalo is a two-score favorite this week, and the early line for next week is even more extreme. We saw the Bills’ collapse against the Jags earlier this season, so dropping a game is not out of the question. We will see if they come buttoned up and ready to go this time, with much more on the line.
Let’s see who has the edge in what oddsmakers make to be a blowout.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Falcons vs. Bills Injury Report
- CB Fabian Moreau (ribs): Doubtful
- WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee): Questionable
- DT Ed Oliver (ankle): Questionable
Falcons vs. Bills Matchup
|Falcons Offense||DVOA Rank||Bills Defense|
|Falcons Defense||DVOA Rank||Bills Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Falcons Offense Has Recently Dropped Off
After several impressive games early in the year, the Falcons offense has lost what made it special recently. Even against Detroit’s poor defense the Falcons only managed 254 yards of offense. That was even with Kyle Pitts being essentially unmatchable by the Lions secondary.
The biggest trouble for the Falcons offense has been the disappearance of Cordarrelle Patterson. After being the surprise of the year, Patterson has averaged just 18 total yards and scored one touchdown the past two weeks. Patterson breaking his slump will be key if Atlanta is to pull this upset.
While the running game has fallen off recently, it has been even longer since the passing attack has shown up. Atlanta’s passing offense has produced under 300 passing yards in every game since Week 9. Missing Calvin Ridley has been detrimental to this passing attack. The only hope looks to be Pitts having a big game once again. However, that even seems doubtful given the Bills’ talent at safety.
Defensively, Atlanta has shown no signs of stopping respectable offenses recently. In their past four games against playoff viable teams, the Falcons have allowed 32.3 points per game and 390 yards of offense. They will need some real magic to slow down this Buffalo attack.
Bills Defense Smothers Weak Competition
After its two devastating losses to the Patriots and Buccaneers, Buffalo turned it up against a quality opponent and took down New England in a divisional rematch. Aside from gaining control of the division, the Bills looked like they found what made their offense special. On his final drive, Josh Allen led the offense with a few spectacular plays to milk the clock and score the game-clinching touchdown.
We saw this kind of performance late against Tampa Bay too, where Buffalo went on a 24-3 scoring run to force overtime. When Allen is out of his head and just playing the game, the Bills offense is at its best.
Even with its midseason slump, this offense still ranks eighth in yards per drive and third in points per drive. As long as it shows up, it should tear apart a weak Falcons defense.
Defensively, this team ranks second in yards and points per drive for a reason. Unfortunately, it’s not because it shuts down everyone it plays. The good news is the Bills completely smother weaker opponents. Against teams ranked worse than Atlanta in yards per play, Buffalo has allowed 10.6 points per game and 243 yards of offense. We will see if it can continue that success against the Falcons.
Falcons vs. Bills Predictions
At 7-8, the Falcons might be the most fortunate team in the NFL to have the record they do. Even in the games they won, it looks like they do their best to give the other team a chance. Their point differential sits at -122, only better than the Lions, Texans, Jaguar and Jets — all teams with at least three fewer wins. With their offense lacking its early-season pop, that number is likely to get worse.
The Bills, though, have the best point differential in the league, despite having two or three fewer wins than the league leaders. The key to that success has been the complete annihilation of weaker teams. Buffalo has seven wins this season by at least 17 points. Its air-tight pass defense along with an explosive offense has been the recipe to these victories.
While the defense has lost a bit due to Tre’Davious White’s absence, the offense has been on point. Even without its second, third and fourth receiver last week against the Patriots, Buffalo was unstoppable.
Trust the Bills to continue smashing weaker opponents and the Falcons to continue struggling against tough ones.
Pick: Bills -14 | Bet to: -16.5
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