Argentina vs. Australia Odds, Preview, Prediction: Boomers Favored in Olympics Quarterfinal Matchup (August 2)
ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Patty Mills.
Argentina vs. Australia Odds
|Moneyline||-375 / +290|
|Time||8 a.m. ET|
On the second day of the men’s basketball quarterfinals, Australia takes on Argentina for the right to move onto the semifinals of the 2021 Tokyo Olympics men’s basketball tournament.
All things considered, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. Australia finished group play with a 3-0 record, defeating Nigeria and Germany with ease, while pulling out a three-point win over Italy.
Things were a lot tougher for Argentina, which came into the Olympics as the fourth-ranked team in the FIBA rankings with a silver-medal finish at the 2019 FIBA World Cup. Argentina finished Group play with a 1-2 record and was fortunate to get into the quarterfinals as one of the two best third-place finishers thanks to their -8 point differential, which was thanks to a 97-77 win over Japan in the final group game.
Nonetheless, oddsmakers aren’t too high on Argentina’s chances of returning to their former prominence, as they’ve installed Australia as 8.5-point favorites with a total of 170.5.
So where does the betting value lie for this quarterfinal matchup? Let’s analyze both sides and find out!
Argentina Struggled Into Quarterfinals
Argentina was expected to be one of the teams competing for a medal, but it was immediately apparent in exhibition play that this wasn’t the team of past success.
Manu Ginobili, Andres Nocioni and a younger version of Luis Scola aren’t walking through that door to lead the Argentines to a gold medal as they did back in 2008, and it’s clear the golden age of Argentina international basketball is over.
This is a new generation of talent with the Nuggets-‘ Facundo Campazzo leading the way along with other NBA talents like Leandro Bolmaro (Minnesota Timberwolves-), Gabriel Deck (Oklahoma City Thunder-) and Lucas Vildoza (New York Knicks-).
This roster is still reliant on a 41-year-old Scola, who is averaging 13 points per game. That says a lot about the state of this team, which was lucky to get into the quarterfinals.
Argentina is capable of scoring inside, which is evident by its 55.6% from 2-point range. It hasn’t been a great perimeter-shooting team, though, making just 29% of 3-point attempts in the tournament.
The Argentines have also struggled defensively, giving up 118 points to Slovenia. There’s a clear discrepancy of athleticism against some of the top teams in this tournament. They struggled against the United States, Australia and Nigeria in exhibition play.
Australia was expected to be among the teams with a legitimate chance of challenging Team USA for the Gold in the men’s basketball tournament at the Olympics. If you’ve listened to the Action Network Olympic podcast or read futures-the-action-network-podcast-tokyo-2020″>our preview, you’d know Australia was actually my pick to win Group B, as well as to medal. The Aussies haven’t disappointed, going 3-0 in group play with wins over Nigeria, Italy and Germany while having the fourth-best point differential (+33) among all Olympic teams.
This is one of the most talented rosters in the field with NBA players of the past and present in Patty Mills (San Antonio Spurs-), Joe Ingles (Utah Jazz-), Matthew Dellavedova, Dante Exum (Houston Rockets-), Josh Green (Dallas Mavericks-) and Matisse Thybulle (Philadelphia 76ers-).
The Boomers did lose Aron Baynes for the rest of the tournament with a neck injury, so this team will be without one of their leading bigs. Nonetheless, Australia is still stacked and has more than enough to compete for gold.
Center Jock Landale did a solid job in the absence of Baynes against Germany, scoring 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting, while forward Nick Kay provided 16 points while grabbing four rebounds and dishing four assists. Mills is third in scoring with 21.7 points per game along with 5.7 assists.
Australia as a whole is shooting 45% from the field, 50% from inside the arc and 37.9% from behind it, so this is a versatile team offensively that can beat you inside and out.
We know this team can score, but what makes this team scary is their ability to defend and with long wings like Thybulle. The Boomers are holding opposing teams to 41.3% shooting from the field and 33% from 3-point range.
Given Argentina’s lack of athleticism, Australia could be well on their way to the semifinals and one step away from competing for gold.
I’ve been fading this Argentina team since the first time I saw them in exhibition play, and I see no reason to stop here.
The Aussies’ win over a Japan team that finished 0-3 with a -66 point differential hasn’t done anything to change the perception of this Argentina team for me. The golden age of Argentina basketball is over while Australia has a stacked roster which has a real chance to compete for the Gold medal even without Baynes.
Lay the 8.5 points with Australia as they should make quick and easy work out of Argentina on the way to the semifinals. If you’ve listened to our podcast and played Argentina knocked out in the quarterfinals -110 (BetMGM), you’re currently sitting in a great position with no need to make this wager.
Pick: Australia -8.5 (-110)