Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shocked the political world in June by winning the Democratic primary in New York’s 14th congressional district, upending incumbent Joe Crowley, who has served as the representative since 2013 and served in the 7th district before that. If Ocasio-Cortez wins the election in November, the 28-year-old will be the youngest woman ever elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Politics speculation site PredictIt currently has odds on which party will win New York’s 14th district this fall. It doesn’t seem like it’ll be very close:
A quick disclaimer: It’s currently unclear how large — and sharp — the marketplace is at PredictIt. There have been studies that have shown that political betting markets have historically outperformed polls, but I would encourage readers to view this as a single data point about the upcoming midterms. Combining market info with polling data — along with historical election results of the district — is the best route to gain a clear picture of what to expect in November.
Still, it’s clear that Ocasio-Cortez should be a very large favorite to win the seat. The last time NY-14 elected a Republican was Susan Molinari, who served from 1990 to 1993. Since that time, when Carolyn B. Maloney was elected, a Democrat has continually held office. Looking at how the district has voted in presidential elections, it’s clear this is a heavily blue district:
You’ll notice that the PredictIt odds don’t quite add up to 100%. My guess is the incumbent, Crowley, is still on the ballot under the “Working Families” party. He has said publicly that while he won’t explicitly run a campaign, he will not remove his name from the ballot. That will likely work to take a chunk of votes away from Ocasio-Cortez, although her star is currently very bright in the public sphere among Democrats. It could also take away some votes from Republican candidate Anthony Pappas.
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Going back to the 1996 election, no Democratic candidate has received fewer than 70% of the vote, and in many years they received more than 80%. While Ocasio-Cortez is unlikely to get 90% of the vote, it’s very likely she will become the youngest woman in House history.