2020 Democratic Primary Odds: Biden’s Odds Shoot Up After Buttigieg, Klobuchar Drop Out


Sean Rayford/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

  • Update: After Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the Democratic Primary race this weekend, Joe Biden was the biggest winner, raising his odds to nearly 30% to win the nomination.
  • After another moderate, Amy Klobuchar, ended her campaign Monday afternoon, he jumped even more and now sits with a 39.% probability to be the Democratic nominee for president.
  • Bernie Sanders still leads with a 41.4% probability; Michael Bloomberg (12.4%) is the only other candidate above 10% entering Super Tuesday.

Despite winning the most delegates in the Iowa caucus and finishing second in New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg suspended his presidential campaign on Sunday night. The South Bend mayor’s abrupt departure is a shock before Super Tuesday, meaning the odds have shifted for the nomination.

Bernie Sanders remains the frontrunner heading into this week’s slate of primaries, but Buttigieg’s exit from the race means renewed energy for former vice president Joe Biden’s campaign. After participating in two debates, Michael Bloomberg will be on the ballot for the first time when 14 states cast their votes this week.

Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, +110 means that if you bet $100 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $110. And +600 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $600.

  • Bernie Sanders: +110 odds, 47.6% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +120 odds, 45.5% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +600 odds, 12.4% implied probability
  • Hillary Clinton: +2500 odds, 3.3% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +4000 odds, 2.1% implied probability
  • Michelle Obama: +10000 odds, 0.9% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +20000 odds, 0.4% implied probability

Via Betfair. Note: Implied probabilities are juice-free

The biggest winner from the departures of Buttigieg and Klobuchar  is Biden, whose implied probability went up from 25.7% over the weekend to 45.5% on Monday. Frontrunner Bernie Sanders saw his implied probability bump just over a percentage point while Mike Bloomberg also saw his probability rise by 0.4%.

More 2020 Democratic Primary & Super Tuesday Odds Coverage

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