Kavanaugh Confirmation Odds Tank After Blasey Ford’s Testimony

Kavanaugh Confirmation Odds Tank After Blasey Ford’s Testimony article feature image

Screenshot via CNN. Pictured: Christine Blasey Ford

  • Christine Blasey Ford testified before the Senate Judicial Committee on Thursday to provide more details about her sexual assault allegation of Supreme Court Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
  • On Thursday morning, after Blasey Ford's initial testimony, the betting market was hit with anti-Kavanaugh action.
  • At PredictIt, Kavanaugh's confirmation odds fell from 55% to 36%.
  • One of the sharpest offshore books, is posting Kavanaugh -450 (81.8% chance) to not be confirmed on or before Oct. 31, 2018

On Thursday, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court saga reached a tipping point as Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, gave her much-anticipated testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

In front of a national television audience, Blasey Ford painstakingly detailed her sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh.

According to many viewers across the political spectrum, Blasey Ford gave compelling testimony on Thursday morning and appeared as a credible witness.

On Fox News, Bret Baier says hearing from Blasey Ford "is a totally different thing" than reading her allegations.

Chris Wallace: "This was extremely emotional, extremely raw, and extremely credible… This is a disaster for the Republicans." pic.twitter.com/aSbznSJdHC

— David Mack (@davidmackau) September 27, 2018

During the morning testimony, betting markets were steamed with heavy anti-Kavanaugh action.

At PredictIt, Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed dropped from 55% to 36%. The odds of Kavanaugh being rejected surged from 49% to 60%.

Shares of “49 or fewer votes” surged to 62 cents, an all-time high. (In order to be confirmed, Kavanaugh needs at least 50 votes, with Vice President Mike Pence breaking any tie.)

The likelihood that 49 or fewer Senators will vote to confirm Kavanaugh has gone up this morning, according to @PredictIt forecasters. https://t.co/X0KmxSwaer #FordHearing pic.twitter.com/YQWQ6CpiVw

— PredictIt (@PredictIt) September 27, 2018

Several sportsbooks took Kavanaugh odds off the board during the testimony and then re-opened them at new prices.

All listed Kavanaugh as an underdog to be confirmed.

Will Kavanaugh be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice? 

  • Yes: 46.5% chance (+115 odds)
  • No: 59.2% chance (-145 odds)

Will Kavanaugh be confirmed or rejected? 

  • Rejected: 63% chance (-170 odds)
  • Confirmed: 41.7% chance (+140 odds)

Will Kavanaugh be confirmed on or before Oct. 31, 2018? 

  • Yes: 25% chance (+300 odds)
  • No: 81.8% chance (-450 odds)

Last week, Kavanaugh was a -250 favorite to be confirmed.

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