Brett Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Chances Improving in Betting Market

Sep 21, 2018 3:11 PM EDT
  • Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court confirmation odds have reopened at -250, which translates to a 71.4% implied probability.
  • He is a +300 longshot to withdraw from SCOTUS consideration (25% chance).

A little more than a week ago, the political world was turned upside down when decades-old sexual assault allegations surfaced against President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, putting his confirmation odds in serious jeopardy.

Democrats have demanded that Kavanaugh’s confirmation be put on hold until the allegations are fully vetted and Kavanaugh’s accuser is able to tell her story to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Meanwhile, Republicans appear resolute on pushing Kavanaugh’s confirmation forward.

Over the past 24 hours, Bovada, an offshore sportsbook, has released a plethora of updated Kavanaugh odds, including whether or not he will be confirmed, how many votes he will receive in the Senate and which senators will or will not vote to confirm him.

Note: -250 betting odds mean a $250 wager would net you $100, while +250 betting odds mean a $100 wager would net you $250.

Will Kavanaugh be confirmed to the Supreme Court?

  • Yes: 71.4% chance (-250 odds)
  • No: 33.9% chance (+195 odds)

How many “yes” votes will Kavanaugh receive in the Senate? 

  • 49 or fewer votes: 37% chance (+170 odds)
  • 50 votes: 6.3% chance (+1500 odds)
  • 51 votes: 26.7% chance (+275 odds)
  • 52 votes: 20% chance (+400 odds)
  • 53 votes: 11.1% chance (+800 odds)
  • 54 votes: 11.1% chance (+800 odds)
  • 55 or more votes: 4.8% chance (+2000 odds)

How will Rand Paul vote to confirm Kavanaugh?

  • Yes: 75% chance (-300 odds)
  • No: 29.4% chance (+240 odds)

How will Joe Manchin vote to confirm Kavanaugh?

  • Yes: 50% chance (+100 odds)
  • No: 58.3% chance (-140 odds)

How will Jeff Flake vote to confirm Kavanaugh?

  • Yes: 75% chance (-300 odds)
  • No: 29.4% chance (+240 odds)

MyBookie has also updated two key props bets, including Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed and withdrawing.

Will Kavanaugh be confirmed to the Supreme Court?

  • Yes -500 (implied probability 83.3%)
  • No +300 (implied probability 25%)

Will Kavanaugh withdraw from SCOTUS consideration?

  • Yes: 25% chance (+300 odds)
  • No: 83.3% chance (-500 odds)

At PredictIt, Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed are trading at 67 cents, up four cents over the past 24 hours.

Smarkets, a British betting exchange, is far less bullish on Kavanaugh. His odds sit at 61.73% after topping out at 96.15% two weeks ago.

Credit:

Jack Gruber-USA TODAY

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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