Kavanaugh’s Testimony Completely Flips Confirmation Odds


Jack Gruber-USA TODAY. Pictured: Brett Kavanaugh

Sep 28, 2018, 09:38 PM EDT
  • After Brett Kavanaugh testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday, his odds to be confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice increased significantly.
  • According to oddsmaker, he had a 25% chance (+300 odds) to be confirmed earlier Thursday, but by the evening, that had increased to a 66.7% chance (-200 odds).

Thursday was a whirlwind day on Capitol Hill, with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford both taking the stand before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

During Ford’s testimony, in which she accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her, we saw the betting market change in a hurry. Kavanaugh’s odds to be confirmed dipped from 55% to 36% on PredictIt.

Kavanaugh got a chance to defend himself before the committee later in the afternoon. That testimony — and the reports that followed about where certain swing-vote Senators stand — flipped the entire betting market.

At PredictIt, Kavanaugh’s confirmation chances went from 36% to 79% in the span of a few hours.

Here’s how the rest of the market responded (all “before” odds taken from this story earlier today; all “after” odds as of 9 p.m. ET):

Will Kavanaugh be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice? 

  • Yes (before): 46.5% chance (+115 odds)
  • Yes (after): 77.4% chance (-290 odds)
  • No (before): 59.2% chance (-145 odds)
  • No (after): 30.3% chance (+230 odds)

Will Kavanaugh be confirmed on or before Oct. 31, 2018? 

  • Yes (before): 25% chance (+300 odds)
  • Yes (after): 66.7% chance (-200 odds)
  • No (before): 81.8% chance (-450 odds)
  • No (after): 39.2% chance (+155 odds)
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