Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Odds Plummet Following Latest Allegations

Sep 24, 2018 02:49 PM EDT

Brett Kavanaugh. Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY

  • Over the weekend, a second woman came forward accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault.
  • Kavanaugh's confirmation odds have tanked from a 71.4% chance to 46.5% (-250 odds to +115).
  • The odds of Kavanaugh withdrawing from SCOTUS consideration have moved from a 25% chance to 43.5% (+300 odds to +130).

On Friday — just three short days ago — Brett Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed to the Supreme Court were sitting pretty.

He had a 71.4% chance to be confirmed (-250 odds) and just a 25% chance (+300 odds) to withdraw from SCOTUS consideration, according to the market.

However, over the weekend, a second woman came forward accusing Kavanaugh of sexual assault, this time during his college years.

The result? Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court odds plummeted across the offshore betting market.

Since Friday, Kavanaugh’s confirmation chances fell from the aforementioned 71.4% chance (-250 odds) to 46.5% (+145 odds). (All odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 24.)

For the first time, “No” has become the favorite (59.2% chance, -145 odds).

Essentially, Kavanaugh moved from a favorite to an underdog to be confirmed over the weekend.

At PredictIt, Kavanaugh’s SCOTUS stock has tanked considerably over the past seven days:


The odds of Kavanaugh’s nomination being withdrawn have also moved in a big way following the allegations, from a 25% chance (+300) to now being 43.5% (+130).

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