Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Odds Plummet Following Latest Allegations
Brett Kavanaugh. Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY
- Over the weekend, a second woman came forward accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault.
- Kavanaugh's confirmation odds have tanked from a 71.4% chance to 46.5% (-250 odds to +115).
- The odds of Kavanaugh withdrawing from SCOTUS consideration have moved from a 25% chance to 43.5% (+300 odds to +130).
On Friday — just three short days ago — Brett Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed to the Supreme Court were sitting pretty.
He had a 71.4% chance to be confirmed (-250 odds) and just a 25% chance (+300 odds) to withdraw from SCOTUS consideration, according to the market.
However, over the weekend, a second woman came forward accusing Kavanaugh of sexual assault, this time during his college years.
As Senate Republicans press for a swift vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, Senate Democrats are investigating a new allegation of sexual misconduct against the Supreme Court nominee, dating back to his college years. https://t.co/1jf3dqMW8g
— The New Yorker (@NewYorker) September 24, 2018
The result? Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court odds plummeted across the offshore betting market.
Since Friday, Kavanaugh’s confirmation chances fell from the aforementioned 71.4% chance (-250 odds) to 46.5% (+145 odds). (All odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 24.)
For the first time, “No” has become the favorite (59.2% chance, -145 odds).
Essentially, Kavanaugh moved from a favorite to an underdog to be confirmed over the weekend.
At PredictIt, Kavanaugh’s SCOTUS stock has tanked considerably over the past seven days:
The odds of Kavanaugh’s nomination being withdrawn have also moved in a big way following the allegations, from a 25% chance (+300) to now being 43.5% (+130).