Nancy Pelosi’s Odds to Be the Next Speaker of the House

Oct 19, 2018 12:31 PM EDT
  • The 2018 midterm elections take place on Nov. 6.
  • Nancy Pelosi (D) has a 60% chance (-150 betting favorite) to become the next Speaker of the House.
  • Betting markets expect Democrats to win the House and Republicans to retain control of the Senate.

We’re heading down the home stretch for the 2018 midterm elections. With fewer than three weeks to go until Nov. 6, bookmakers are posting new prop bets and adjusting their odds based on updated polling and the action they’re taking in.

The biggest question heading into November: Which party will control the House and Senate?

Here are the latest odds across the offshore market.

2018 US House of Representatives Election- Majority Outcome (Bovada)

  • Democratic Majority: 72.2% chance (-260 odds)
  • Republican Majority:  35.7% chance (+180 odds)

Odds to win House Control 2018 (Heritage)

  • Democrats: 67.7% chance (-210 odds)
  • Republicans: 38.5% chance (+160 odds)

Late movement has favored the Democrats. Over the past seven days, bookmakers have increased the Democrats’ chances from 66.7% to 72.2% (-200 to -260) at Bovada and 66.7% to 67.7% (-200 to -210) at Heritage.

On Friday, Bovada released a brand new prop that hinges upon which party will win the House.

Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives? 

  • Nancy Pelosi (D): 60% chance (-150 odds)
  • Jim Jordan (R): 28.6% chance (+250 odds)
  • Kevin McCarthy (R): 16.7% chance (+500 odds)
  • Steve Scalise (R): 6.3% chance (+1500 odds)
  • James Clyburn (D): 4.8% chance (+2000 odds)
  • Field: 16.7% chance (+500 odds)

While Democrats are favored to win the House, the Senate is a different story.

2018 U.S. Senate Election: Majority Outcome (Bovada)

  • Republican Majority: 76.2% chance (-320 odds)
  • Democratic Majority: 15.4% chance (+550 odds)
  • No majority: 18.2% chance (+450 odds)

Odds to win Senate Control 2018 (Heritage)

  • Republicans: 87.5% chance (-700 odds)
  • Democrats: 18.9% chance (+430 odds)

Late movement has broken further toward Republicans. Over the past seven days, Republicans have moved from 72.2% to 76.2% (-260 to -320) at Bovada and 84.4% to 87.5% (-560 to -700) at Heritage.

Bovada is also posting odds on the exact number of Senate seats Republicans will control following the midterm elections. The favorite is 53 or 54.

2018 U.S. Senate Election: Exact Republican seats after Midterms (Bovada)

  • 60 or more: 6.3% chance (+1500 odds)
  • 59: 3.8% chance (+2500 odds)
  • 58: 6.3% chance (+1500 odds)
  • 57: 7.1% chance (+1300 odds)
  • 56: 9.1% chance (+1000 odds)
  • 55: 18.2% chance (+450 odds)
  • 54: 20% chance (+400 odds)
  • 53: 20% chance (+400 odds)
  • 52: 18.2% chance (+450 odds)
  • 51: 13.3% chance (+650 odds)
  • 50: 9.5% chance (+950 odds)
  • 49 or fewer: 11.8% chance (+750 odds)

Piecing it all together, the betting markets expect Democrats to take the House but Republicans to retain control of the Senate.

2018 Midterm Elections: Exact Outcome (Bovada)

  • Democratic House/Republican Senate: 60% chance (-150 odds)
  • Republican House/Republican Senate: 37.7% chance (+165 odds)
  • Democratic House/Democratic Senate: 11.8% chance (+750 odds)
  • Republican House/Democratic Senate: 1% chance (+10000 odds)
Credit:

credit USA Today

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