Pennsylvania Election Polls & Betting Odds: Biden Has Edge vs. Trump In Presidential Race

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Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

Pennsylvania Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Joe Biden
-400
73.7%
Donald Trump
+250
26.3%

Odds as of Oct. 16 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s +250 odds mean a $100 bet would net $250 if he wins Pennsylvania. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Pennsylvania Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
50.7%
Donald Trump
43.9%

538 Pennsylvania Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Joe Biden
87%
Donald Trump
13%

Polling averages and projections as of Oct. 16 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Pennsylvania Presidential Race Updates

Friday, Oct. 16: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 73.7% vs. 26.3% edge in implied probability over Donald Trump to win Pennsylvania — one of the most critical swing states.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which simulates the election 40,000 times, projects Biden to win 87 out of every 100 times and Trump only 13 out of every 100 times. The site’s average of polls additionally gives the former Vice President a 50.7% to 43.9% edge over the President.


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Although the betting odds and FiveThirtyEight give Biden a favorable projection, it’s expected to be another close and pivotal result this November. With 20 of the 538 total electoral votes, Pennsylvania is tied with Illinois for the fourth-most electoral votes in the country, making it historically among the most important battleground states in presidential elections.

Pennsylvania delivered Trump his narrowest victory among the 50 states in the 2016 election, edging out Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by only 0.72%. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes compared to Clinton’s 227.

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