Pennsylvania Election Odds: Biden’s Edge vs. Trump Grows in Presidential Election Betting Market

Pennsylvania Election Odds: Biden’s Edge vs. Trump Grows in Presidential Election Betting Market article feature image
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Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

  • Joe Biden is a significant favorite over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania in the 2020 Presidential Election, even as Trump's odds to win the whole thing improved Tuesday morning.
  • The betting market gives Biden a nearly 66% chance to capture the Keystone State on Election Day.

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Pennsylvania Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Joe Biden
-227
65.7%
Donald Trump
+175
34.3%

Odds as of Tuesday, Nov. 3 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s +175 odds mean a $100 bet would net $175 if he wins Pennsylvania. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Pennsylvania Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
50.2%
Donald Trump
45.6%

538 Pennsylvania Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Joe Biden
84%
Donald Trump
16%

Polling averages and projections as of Nov. 3 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Pennsylvania Presidential Race Updates

Tuesday, Nov. 3: Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania has remained about the same since last week, according to the betting market, but Donald Trump’s chances have actually worsened.

Betfair has reduced the hold on this market — essentially giving the consumer a more fair price — by keeping Biden at -227 and moving Trump up to +175.

Pennsylvania is arguably the most important state in the election, depending on what other dominoes fall.

Friday, Oct. 30: Joe Biden’s -227 odds give him a 64.6% implied probability over Donald Trump (+163; 35.4%) to win Pennsylvania, which delivered the President his closest victory in 2016.

Biden also leads Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls as well as wins 85 out of every 100 simulations in Nate Silver’s model.

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Friday, Oct. 16: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 73.7% vs. 26.3% edge in implied probability over Donald Trump to win Pennsylvania — one of the most critical swing states.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which simulates the election 40,000 times, projects Biden to win 87 out of every 100 times and Trump only 13 out of every 100 times. The site’s average of polls additionally gives the former Vice President a 50.7% to 43.9% edge over the President.

Although the betting odds and FiveThirtyEight give Biden a favorable projection, it’s expected to be another close and pivotal result this November. With 20 of the 538 total electoral votes, Pennsylvania is tied with Illinois for the fourth-most electoral votes in the country, making it historically among the most important battleground states in presidential elections.

Pennsylvania delivered Trump his narrowest victory among the 50 states in the 2016 election, edging out Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by only 0.72%. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes compared to Clinton’s 227.

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