Republican Primary Odds for the 2024 Presidential Election

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Doug Burgum Fails to Excite the Republican Base, Announces Campaign Suspension

December 5, 2023

Doug Burgum has officially become the next Republican candidate to drop out of the 2024 presidential race. Burgum announced on Monday, December 4th that he was suspending his campaign effective immediately. Burgum's decision to step aside in the Republican Primary is one that was widely expected to happen sooner than later. The North Dakota governor failed to make any real impression on voters in the first two Republican debates, and did not even qualify for the third debate. At the time of suspending his campaign, it appears that Burgum would not have qualified for the fourth Republican debate either.

From the get-go, Burgum struggled to attract lucrative donors to support his campaign. He was ultimately forced to donate a significant amount of his own personal wealth to float the campaign. In addition, his campaign had to offer $20 gift cards to entice people to donate to his campaign in order to qualify for the debate stage.

Burgum's national polling numbers showed the governor as an essential non-factor in the race. ABC New Election Polls had Burgum at 0.7% support among Republican voters across the country and at 1.3% in Iowa as of December 3rd. Clearly, there was no path to the White House for Doug Burgum. The governor did not immediately endorse any other Republican candidate, but it is possible that he could down the road.

Previous Republican Primary Updates

The Republican Primary Becomes a Little Less Crowded with Tim Scott Suspending Campaign 

November 29, 2023

Senator Tim Scott made the announcement on Sunday, November 12 that he was suspending his presidential campaign efforts, dropping out of the Republican primary effective immediately. The announcement came as somewhat of a surprise just two months out from the Iowa Caucuses. According to ABC News Election Polls, Scott’s polling numbers in the state were 7.3% the day prior to his dropping out of the race. By comparison, Donald Trump is polling at 45.6%, Ron DeSantis at 17.1%, and Nikki Haley at 13.8%. 

While the timing of Scott’s announcement was a bit of a surprise, this outcome seemed somewhat inevitable. The senator’s campaign funding had reportedly started to dry up in light of stagnant polling numbers in the early primary states. Tim Scott’s supporters in Iowa will now need to find new candidates to back ahead of the January caucuses. Will they consolidate around the familiar face of Donald Trump, or will they branch out to help other candidates, like surging Nikki Haley, chip away at Trump’s lead?

Republican Primary Odds: Who Drops Out Next?

There are six remaining candidates in the Republican Primary for the 2024 Presidential Election. Donald Trump remains the clear frontrunner, but there seems to be significant momentum behind Nikki Haley in recent weeks. There are also rumblings of a Liz Cheney third-party candidacy growing louder. Can anyone displace Trump? Action Network’s Anthony Dabbundo has updated his odds for the remaining Republican candidates following the latest developments.

The odds have been created based off the American odds format, which is the standard for US sportsbooks. American odds are centered on winning $100. Any odds with a minus sign (like -110) indicate that you must risk more than you'll win — a $110 bet at -110 would win $100. Any odds with a plus sign (like +150) means you'll win more than you risked — a $100 bet at +150 wins $150.

Odds updated December 12, 2023

Asa Hutchinson +150

Hutchinson is still in the race, but he’s polling at or below 1% in Iowa and has failed to qualify for the last three debates. As a former governor of Arkansas who is no longer holding elected office and likely won’t ever hold elected office ever again, Hutchinson has no real incentive to hurry out of the race. He also doesn’t have the money to stay in it for much longer.

Chris Christie +400

Christie is presenting a stark alternative to President Trump and he’s been the most direct in trying to hold Trump accountable for losses the Republican party has had down the ballot since he became President in 2017. Christie’s time in elected office is over and he doesn’t seem to mind challenging the party status quo. I expect Christie in the race as long as he can afford it. He qualified for the last debate, but he's the clear fifth and doesn't have much a path to going any higher than he currently is on the polls while taking on the party frontrunner so head on. He should last longer than Hutchinson, but he's struggling

Vivek Ramaswamy +800

Ramaswamy is running a great campaign relative to where expectations were set for him when he announced. His youth and energy and outside insurgency campaign has clearly made in-roads with a group of Trumpian voters within the GOP. The problem is that Ramaswamy is running to be the next Trump in a world that still has the former President in it. Ramaswamy has made his mark on this race and done really well with fundraising, but I do wonder if he bows out before losing primaries badly to preserve his name and image. It's not crazy to see Trump appreciating him enough to consider him for a VP slot.

Ron DeSantis +1300

Ron DeSantis is no longer the clear second option to Donald Trump in the Republican primary. Some tracking polls have showed Haley pulling even with or even surpassing DeSantis overall. A bunch of the top establishment and inside the Beltway donors have decided to back Haley over him. DeSantis' decision to debate California Governor Gavin Newsom reeked of a candidate who is struggling to make his mark and get out of Trump's shadow. The GOP frontrunner has gone after both Haley and DeSantis, but it feels a lot more personal with the Florida governor. DeSantis may realize it's better to get out than to continue languishing.

Nikki Haley +1500

Haley's path to the nomination is too crowded as long as both she and DeSantis remain in the race together. Haley has the money and most importantly, the home state advantage in early state South Carolina that probably keeps her in the race. She's gaining establishment and traditional media support, but how far does that carry you in a modern GOP primary? She'll have the money, and she probably feels she can win or have a good enough showing in SC to propel her into Super Tuesday as the top Trump alternative.

Donald Trump +3000

Trump isn’t ending his campaign unless a health or legal issue forces him to. He’s the Republican frontrunner and it’s much more likely than not at this point that he will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.

Follow the Republican Primary with Action Network

The Iowa Caucuses are set to take place on January 15, 2024. There’s a lot that could happen between now and then, but it is expected that all of the current Republican candidates will be present in Iowa. There is sure to be a shakeup after the caucuses, with a few more dropouts likely. Will there be any surprises, or will it be smooth sailing for Trump? 

Stay tuned for updated odds and stories throughout the entire Republican primary season. The season will kick off in earnest on Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024) with many so-called purple states, like North Carolina, casting their ballots across the country! 

You can also track the 2024 Presidential Election odds from now through November 2024.

This is a developing story that will be updated regularly.

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