Election Odds: 2024 Presidential Election

Election Odds: 2024 Presidential Election article feature image

Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images. Pictured: Donald Trump during the South Carolina Republican presidential primary as we break down the latest 2024 presidential election odds and predictions for chances to win in November.

For the latest on the 2024 Presidential Election, head over to 2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions, Chances to Win.

2024 Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump's Chances to Win

Former president Donald Trump is the current favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at odds of -110. Trump's -110 odds predict a 44.61% chance to win.

Trump's chances to win in November fell slightly after the recent South Carolina Republican primary, despite Trump's resounding win over Nikki Haley and the rest of the field. Before that primary, Trump's odds were -118 with a 46.36% chance to win.

2024 Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden's Chances to Win

President Joe Biden's 2024 presidential election odds are +225. Biden's +225 odds to win reelection predict a 26.20% chance of victory. Late in February, Biden's odds to win the presidency dipped below 25% for the first time since last August, before rising back above 25% after South Carolina.

Election Odds: 2024 Presidential Election

CandidateOddsChance to Win Election
Donald Trump-11044.61%
Joe Biden+22526.20%
Michelle Obama+8009.46%
Gavin Newsom+8009.46%
Kamala Harris+20004.06%
Nikki Haley+25003.28%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+28002.94%

Odds via BetMGM UK. Implied probability is "fair" implied probability, without the vigorish. Sportsbooks cannot offer political betting in the United States.

A quick note on presidential election odds: this betting market often can act as a sort of wish fulfillment for people's political leanings. There is nothing that indicates Michelle Obama should have the third-best odds to win the 2024 presidential election, but that's the case.

That's a reflection of how the money has come in on this particular market, as things can get kind of weird the further down the presidential election odds board you go. Ultimately, however, these odds reflect the increasing reality that this is a two-person campaign between the incumbent and the most recent former president.

Donald Trump opened as the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at +250 in July 2022, followed by Ron DeSantis at +300 and Joe Biden at +550.

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