The impeachment odds for President Donald Trump skyrocketed a couple of weeks ago following the guilty plea of Michael Cohen (Trump’s longtime personal lawyer) and conviction of Paul Manafort (Trump’s former presidential campaign manager).
And they’re spiking again on the politics speculation site PredictIt. Trump’s current chances to be impeached sit at 49.0%. That’s up from 33.3% in mid-to-late July and 42.0% on Aug. 21.
It’s difficult to know what exactly caused the jump this week, but it could be due to the upcoming release of reporter Bob Woodward’s new book, “Fear: Trump in the White House.”
According to reports, Woodward details that Trump’s senior aides view him as a national security threat and even resort to removing papers from his desk so he can’t see or sign them.
Of course, Trump’s impeachment is also tied to the odds of Democrats winning back the House, which has the sole power of drafting up articles of impeachment. (The Senate has the sole power to remove a president from office.)
PredictIt has the odds of Democrats winning back the House at 70%, and FiveThirtyEight’s House model currently has them at 77.3%.
The offshore betting website Bovada had impeachment odds posted following the Cohen and Manafort news, but it has since taken them off the board.
Bovada’s odds were at 53.5% (or -115) back on Aug. 21.