Trump Impeachment Odds Surge Following Manafort Conviction, Cohen Guilty Plea
- President Donald Trump's odds to be impeached increased from 33.3% a month ago to 53.5% on Tuesday, Aug. 21.
- The reason? Michael Cohen (Trump's longtime personal lawyer) pleaded guilty and Paul Manafort (former presidential campaign manager) was found guilty on Tuesday.
- Cohen, for his part, directly implicated President Trump in his testimony.
Within just minutes on Tuesday afternoon, President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, pleaded guilty to eight charges, and former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty of eight financial crimes.
The courtroom decisions are likely to affect Trump, especially since Cohen claimed he was acting directly under the direction of “the candidate” in his testimony.
The betting market reacted immediately, with offshore sportsbooks Bovada and 5Dimes pulling any Trump-related odds.
Since, Bovada has re-posted two:
Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House in his 1st term?
- Yes: 53.5% (-115 odds)
- No: 53.5% (-115 odds)
Will Paul Manafort be pardoned by Dec. 31, 2018?
- Yes: 25.0% (+300 odds)
- No: 80.0% (-400 odds)
These Trump impeachment odds represent a big jump from just a month ago, when both Paddy Power and politics speculation site PredictIt had them at 33.3% (+200 odds).
PredictIt is now at 42.0% for Trump to be impeached in his first term.
That could continue to rise to be more in line with Bovada’s odds over the coming weeks.