Jason Moloney vs. Leonardo Baez Boxing Odds, Picks & Prediction: Beware the Top Rank Main Event Upset

Jason Moloney watched his twin brother lose a tough unanimous decision bout in his first title defense on Tuesday and will certainly be looking to make a statement in his own fight tonight. Moloney (20-1, 17 KO) will go head-to-head with Leonardo Baez (18-2, 9 KO) Thursday in Top Rank Boxing's main event (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).

The 10-rounder will be the last of a six-fight card that will take place without fans inside the MGM Grand bubble set up for Top Rank fighters in Las Vegas.

Moloney vs. Franco Odds

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Moloney is a slightly wider favorite than his brother was two nights ago, at -530 on the moneyline, and the odds suggest that his most likely method of winning would come on the cards (-121). The total is set at 8.5 rounds and the odds on the over convert to a 66% implied probably. The odds that the fight does go the distance are shaded toward "yes" at -190.

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Moloney vs. Baez Betting Pick

As noted above, Moloney's brother suffered a brutal defeat on Tuesday in his first title defense. It was a reminder that that long odds for one fighter don't always reflect the actual chances to win, especially at the prospect level. It's always tough to gauge how these lower-level fights will go, but it becomes even tougher given the external circumstances at play.

But this fight looks like more of mismatch on paper than Tuesday's fight. For one, Baez is a replacement for the man who was supposed to be in this fight, Oscar Negrete — he withdrew because of a detached retina earlier this month. Baez is working with a good trainer in his corner, Joel Diaz, but he hasn't fought enough good competition in his career.

Moloney, on the other hand, has been in big fights before. His only career loss was close split decision for the IBF bantamweight belt in 2018 and, unlike his younger brother, he's fought outside of Australia. Moloney is also an excellent finished with an 80% knockout rate. He has stopped six of his past seven opponents in Round 5 or sooner.

With so many upsets happening over the past two weeks, I don't know if I fully trust Moloney to dominate like his resume says he should. This fight could end up being just as scrappy as the main event from Tuesday.

Because of the uncertainty here I'm going to back the fight not going the distance again. It has about the same implied probability (38%) as Moloney by stoppage, but leaves the door open for some potential drama.