Is this kinda sad? We have a Jake Paul fight week, and this time, he's actually fighting a former world champion in Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Let's get into my Paul vs. Chavez prediction for tonight below.
But … this is a Jake Paul fight week. It really gives you an idea of how far Chavez has fallen.
Chavez has had some well-documented personal issues — more on that later — and his performances have suffered. He's missed weight on multiple occasions, hasn't been this far from world-class since he was an amateur, and is one of the most maligned fighters in a sport where seemingly everyone has their share of haters.
Including the guy standing across the ring from him this weekend.
Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Odds
Odds as of Friday night at DraftKings.
Moneyline
Paul: -575
Chavez: +425
Total Rounds
8.5: -225 / +160
Winning Method
Paul by KO/TKO/DQ: +165
Jake by Decision/Technical Decision: -110
Draw: +1800
Chavez by KO/TKO/DQ: +800
Chavez by Decision/Technical Decision: +900
Paul vs. Chavez Picks, Preview
Paul (11-1, 7 KOs) continues to manage a way to not quite fight a legitimate boxer at their peak, but seemingly always fights a more interesting opponent that could plausibly beat him than last time out.
Chavez (54-6-1, 34 KOs) is 39 years old with a dwindling resume. He's not as old as, less over the hill than and is at least slightly better (ideally, much) than Mike Tyson right now.
But it's entirely possible, given what boxing fans and media know about Chavez, that he could legitimately be content with just getting paid to show up.
It's hard to break this fight down, given we don't actually know what version of Chavez will show up.
What we know is we haven't seen Chavez in a ring since July, when he won a unanimous decision against Uriah Hall — a former long-time mixed martial artist in the UFC who was 1-0 as a pro boxer entering the fight with a decision win over former NFL running back Le'Veon Bell nearly two years earlier.
This will be Chavez's second fight since 2021, and he looked like sh*t then, too. Oh, and three fights ago, he lost a split decision to 46-year-old Anderson Silva in his home country, Mexico, who was 1-1 as a pro boxer. Paul beat Silva, dropping him in Round 8, the following year.
Chavez hasn't had a memorable (read: good) moment in boxing since dropping Sergio Martinez in Round 12 of a middleweight title fight he lost — in 2012. That's his most recent world title fight.
By the way, middleweight is 160 pounds — this is at 200 pounds, which is cruiserweight.
Paul, we know the resume by now. No real active boxers, everyone's old or hardly trained in the sport, and hardly anyone has posed a real threat. Then again, Paul has a loss, and it was to the worst member of the Fury family — Tommy Fury, who has fought just twice since. Somehow, he didn't capitalize on that — at all.
So yeah, this is another circus. If Paul wins, he'll ask for legitimization because he beat a nearly 40-year-old has-been who was arrested for having an illegal firearm last year and has had multiple failed drug tests, weight misses and accusations of quitting. And if Paul wins, he'll say he lost to a former champion, so it's a win-win, I guess? As for Chavez, I'd say he can't afford to lose, but his reputation is already shot — him being the b side on this is enough proof.
Paul vs. Chavez Prediction
- Small straight bet: Jake Paul to win and under 1.5 knockdowns (-140, DraftKings). I wouldn't play beyond -150
As far as the bet, don't burn a dinner on a circus. Bet responsibly. But Chavez is a shot fighter. Paul is younger, stronger and might actually train more. Chavez, even at his peak, wasn't exactly the hardest-working man in the sport.
Why not bet the method of victory? Chavez is liable to tap out at any point, and despite Paul dropping all but two of his opponents, Chavez rarely gets dropped and hasn't been since 2015 and hasn't dropped anyone since 2020. And on the off chance Chavez takes this immensely seriously, Paul's never been dropped and is naturally bigger. But again, this is a fight to bet on for fun, don't be silly.
Enjoy the fight, and don't go broke!
