I say this what feels like every time I write about Naoya Inoue — this is arguably the best boxer in the world.
And now, he's back in the United States, not fighting at 7 a.m. Eastern Time on a Tuesday. He's the main event on ESPN at 10 p.m. Eastern Time on a Sunday — big names typically fight on Saturdays, but this weekend is… we'll call it unique.
This will be another defense of his Undisputed Super Bantamweight Championship. Ramon Cardenas is the challenger and is expected to have a long night in the ring with The Monster.
Read on for our Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas prediction and picks for their boxing match in Las Vegas on Sunday, May 4.
Inoue vs Cardenas Breakdown, Preview
Inoue (29-0, 26 KOs) will face Cardenas (26-1, 14 KOs) as a -8,000 favorite, and in this sport, there's still value to be found even when backing such a massive favorite.
First, it's worth discussing whether or not Cardenas is an actual threat to Inoue.
The short answer is, yes — technically — because this is boxing, a sport that feels so predictable yet we're often reminded that anything can happen, like Rolly Romero beating -1,100 favorite Ryan Garcia on Friday in a stinker.
Inoue losing would legitimately be the biggest upset in boxing history, but it's not like Cardenas does not have any chance at all — it's just an incredibly slim one. Inoue has not just won but has knocked out and dominated each of his last 10 opponents. He has only won by decision once in eight years because of an injury.
He has knocked out 18 of his last 19 opponents — one prominent book isn't even giving you a straight KO/TKO price. Cardenas has won 14 straight fights, earning his way to a title shot, and his one loss was an upset decision to a nine-loss journeyman named Danny Flores in 2017.
Unfortunately, Cardenas tasted the canvas for the first time in his career in his last fight, a decision win over Bryan Acosta this past February.
Inoue was famously dropped against Luis Nery in jaw-dropping fashion during Round 1 of their Tokyo Dome last May, then he got up and kicked Nery's ass until stopping him in Round 6.
There is no bigger gap in boxing between a champion and a challenger than Inoue and his 122-pound counterpart. It's up to Cardenas to make that statement foolish.
Inoue vs Cardenas Prediction, Pick
Ryan Garcia's gun-shy effort and lack of aggression ruined the parlay. If Garcia had held up his end, all we'd need is an Inoue stoppage.
Regardless, value is hard to find here unless you're really willing to be bold.
My favorite bet on the board is Inoue to win and over 1.5 knockdowns, listed on DraftKings at -155.
Inoue is undefeated, so there's step one. Step two, he has knocked down his opponent multiple times in four of his last seven. Cardenas has gotten up from the canvas once already and is a tough dude, but this is typically the Inoue formula. And if you can survive the first one, he'll often make sure you won't on the second.
Enjoy the fight, and don't go broke!
Pick: Inoue to Win and Over 1.5 knockdowns (-155, DraftKings)
