This is the third time we're doing this, but this isn't your typicaly boxing trilogy.
Katie Taylor (24-1, 6 KOs) is the defending Undisputed Super Lightweight Champion of the world entering Friday's mega-fight with former undisputed champion Amanda Serrano (47-3-1, 31 KOs).
Let's get into my Taylor vs. Serrano pick and prediction with odds for tonight.
Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano Odds
| Taylor | +155 |
| Serrano | -190 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-1100/ +550u) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden |
| Bout Time | Approx. 11 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Netflix |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday at 7 p.m. ET.
These are two of the best active and all-time Pound-for-Pound boxers walking the earth. And to be honest, that's not exclusive to women — these two are that good, that accomplished, and that deserving.
How many people could say they're main eventing Madison Square Garden against the same opponent twice?
The first of these trilogies took place at MSG in April of 2022, and the second — more famously, perhaps — in boxing's live debut on Netflix late last year as the co-feature leading up to Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson.
Both fights were close, both won by Taylor, both in a controversial, narrow decision fashion, and in both instances, she arrived and left the champion.
Taylor, 39, has been Undisputed at 140 pounds since 2023 and was the Undisputed Lightweight Champion from 2019 to 2023.
Serrano, 36, has been the Undisputed Champion at featherweight — 126 pounds — but has won world titles across seven different weight classes from super flyweight to super lightweight. The only other boxer to win titles in as many weight classes is Manny Pacquiao.
Taylor vs Serrano Pick and Prediction
It's 2-0 Taylor, but it couldn't feel much closer, and this time — back in Serrano's backyard — she's actually the betting favorite.\>
Why? Well, think about the NBA Playoffs, which just ended a couple of weeks ago. Typically, when a team goes down 2-0, conventional wisdom suggests somewhat of a correction will come in Game 3 of the series unless there's an egregious talent disparity. In this case, Taylor edged out the first bout via split decision with scores of 97-93 and 96-93 in her favor, as Serrano received a 96-94 tally on another judges' scorecard.
In the second fight, Taylor won unanimously, but all three cards read 95-94 each, despite her losing a point due to headbutts. So, while Serrano is 0-2, she's only down a combined eight points across six judges' scorecards.
Additionally, many thought she won at least the second bout, if not both.
In the first fight, she outlanded Taylor 173-147, though she threw 624 punches to the champion's 375, and was nearly 12 percentage points less accurate.
Round by round, Serrano in four of the 10 rounds despite her volume, and tying another, though, she out-landed Taylor a wide 44-14 in Round 5, and was only more accurate in that round despite out-throwing her in all of them. Punch stats are not how a fight is scored — and frankly, I don't always buy them as 100 percent accurate — but personally, I did think Serrano's activity and aggression was enough to earn a 96-94 victory.
In the second fight, that was more obviously egregious. Serrano out-landed Taylor a whopping 324 to 217 and even landed 44 percent to 41 percent, proving for a more accurate night despite throwing 734 punches — 73.4 per round.
Serrano outlanded Taylor in every round but the sixth, out-landing her by double digits in Rounds 7-10 as well as the opener, and she was more accurate than the champion in four of the 10 rounds. And remember, Taylor lost a point in Round 8 due to headbutts, and underscore the result.
The way the two fights have been judged is that when Serrano wins rounds, she wins them big, but clearly, the scorecards reflect that Taylor's counterpunching and speed has been –in totality — enough to overcome Serrano's pressure and activity. I disagree, more vehemently regarding the second fight, but I'm not a judge.
