Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford Predictions, Picks, Odds for Saturday, Sept. 13

This is the fight of the year…on paper.

But there's a world where this fight doesn't deliver the excitement casual fans anticipate.

Canelo Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) is defending his Undisputed Super Middleweight Championship against former two-time Undisputed Champion – at super lightweight and welterweight – Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs).

Let's get into my Alvarez vs Crawford predictions and boxing picks for Saturday, September 13.

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford Predictions, Odds for Saturday, Sept. 13

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford Boxing Preview

Now, here's what you need to know for the actual fight.

Alvarez, while this is his weight class, will again be outsized, in some regard. Crawford, who is slightly taller than the 5-foot-7 and a half Alvarez, has a 74-inch reach. In other words, despite being roughly 5-foot-8, he has a 6-foot-2 reach. Alvarez's reach is roughly 70 inches, or 5-foot-10. Overcoming a reach disadvantage isn't anything new to Alvarez, but Crawford is unique in many aspects.

One, he is and has been arguably the pound-for-pound No. 1 boxer in the world for at least two years. The arguments have been between him, Naoya Inoue, and Oleksandr Usyk, all staking credible claims at the No. 1 spot, but Crawford's been — at worst — No. 3 in recent years. Alvarez is still in the pound-for-pound top 10 for many, and top five for some, but since his loss to Bivol in 2022, he's been criticized for taking lesser opponents.

Alvarez's path to this fight, since September 2022, includes wins over a 40-year-old Gennady Golovkin, a clearly overmatched John Ryder, an outsized and hardly active Jermell Charlo, a duet of battles with two talented yet viewed as "not quite ready" for Canelo in Jaime Munguia and Edgar Berlanga, then the infamous William Scull bout in 2025 — more on that shortly.

Alvarez didn't knock out any of those guys, though he cruised to victory in every bout since the Bivol loss, save for the narrow win over Scull, always recording a knockdown in the process outside of GGG.

Crawford beat Madrimov last year, and notably, has only fought once a year this entire decade. At welterweight, he was 8-0 with eight knockouts, most notably stopping the never-before-knocked-out Shawn Porter, and most famously, the former unified Welterweight kingpin Errol Spence Jr. in a superfight in 2023 that ended as the most one-sided, high-profile ass whooping in boxing, maybe of this generation.

In the Scull fight, Alvarez landed 56 punches in the entire fight, only throwing 152. Scull threw 293 and managed to land just 55. Alvarez's low output was largely credited to Scull's persistent movement around the ring, but Canelo didn't exactly expertly cut the ring off from limiting such movement. Still, Alvarez walked away with a win, even winning round one on all three cards despite not landing a punch (he was 0-for-4 and Scull was 1-for-20… go figure).

Coming off that performance, Alvarez still opened as the favorite over the smaller Crawford and still is. But it's relevant because Crawford will likely implement some of the movement Scull did to bother the flat-footed Canelo, while mixing in more combinations from range and likely fighting out of the southpaw stance.

Crawford is a "switch hitter" but has fought mostly as a southpaw in recent bouts. Alvarez hasn't fought a southpaw since Billy Joe Saunders in 2021, whom he stopped, but who had some early success before retiring on his stool after eight rounds.

Canelo wants this fight inside, wants to rip body shots, and tag Crawford with hooks and uppercuts at his range. Crawford is a skilled defender but isn't perfect, and Alvarez — still a high-level defender in his own right — will search for opportunities to counter, be it slipping a Crawford jab to land a hook to the body, or rolling under a hook shot to land an uppercut up top.

Crawford will be more comfortable at a longer range, leaning on his jab and working hooks and uppercuts off that. In the southpaw stance, you'll see left uppercut, right hook combinations, you'll see Crawford add a straight left afterward, you'll see him go old school and end a combination with a jab, and you'll see him comfortably move laterally to his right or left to create leverage for his shots while continuing to use every inch the ring provides.

Crawford and Canelo are immensely prideful, so a fight could break out in the middle of a boxing match, but engaging in an inside fight would be favorable to Canelo, unless Crawford sustains his punches better than 99.9 percent of Canelo's opponents.

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford Prediction, Best Bets

I bet on Crawford on the moneyline when he was +176 months ago.

When it's boxer vs. puncher, I tend to favor the boxer.

The weight used to worry me. But I think Canelo is closer to washed and clearly past his prime than we want to acknowledge. For now, he's still the best at 168 pounds, but we didn't get to see David Benavidez get a shot at taking the reins from him. And Bivol, frankly, made him look ordinary.

Now, Bivol is a natural light heavyweight, but he's also not at all a big puncher at 175 pounds and has a 72-inch reach — two inches fewer than Crawford — and bullied Canelo at times while boxing as Alvarez attempted to lure him into a firefight and was unsuccessful.

Crawford didn't dominate Madrimov, but no one has. He's a classic tough out who is different to look good against — Vergil Ortiz learned this immediately after in a bout that was arguably closer. The weight isn't a non-factor in handicapping this bout, but I just think Crawford is special enough to overcome that.

The issue will be betting on the judges. Canelo always has weird judging in his favor. He always has at least one score — occasionally more — giving him more credit than he deserves. This happened in bouts against Bivol, Floyd Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, Miguel Cotto, and the first two Golovkin fights… you get the idea.

So Crawford might have to dominate to get a fair shake against Alvarez in Vegas. But I'm not betting against him — I'm not spending a lot of money to do it either, though.

I suggest that whoever you pick, look at split and majority decisions because this can legitimately be close. And, because boxing is boxing, the "draw" bet is always a possibility.

All in all, the weight, venue and crowd influence on judging should favor Canelo. I just think Crawford is that good.

Enjoy the fight, and don't go broke.

Alvarez vs Crawford Picks

• Crawford ML (+145, FanDuel)
• Longshot 1: Crawford by split decision (+900, FanDuel) 
• Longshot 2: Draw (+1300, FanDuel)

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