Manny Pacquiao is seriously back this weekend.
Pacquiao (62-8-2, 39 KOs) is getting a shot at the WBC Welterweight Title against champion Mario Barrios (29-2-1, 18 KOs) on Saturday.
Allow me to tell you how ridiculous this is before we get into the actual fight.
Pacquiao hasn't fought in four years, and he hasn't won a fight in six. He's 46 years old — closer to 50 than 40. He's a hall of famer, one-of-one, pound-for-pound all-timer, all the things. But in 2025, he should not be those things.
Why does Pacquiao skip the line to getting a title shot despite what I just told you?
Because here are the WBC's top five contenders:
- Souleymane Cissokho
- Raul Curiel
- Conor Benn
- Egis Kavaliauskas
- Thulani Mbenge
If you're reading this and watch boxing, there's a good chance you've only seen Benn fight and maybe Curiel.
Have you honestly heard of the No. 1 contender? Have you seen Cissokho fight? Did you know he was undefeated? Have you heard of Malabo? That's where his last fight was.
No, Pacquiao doesn't deserve a title shot in 2025, but he walks back into the sport today as arguably the most popular boxer in the world, including Canelo Alvarez.
And Amazon Prime, which has a deal with Premier Boxing Champions, doesn't care about the sport the way Showtime did. If you had Showtime, you probably liked boxing. If you have Prime, it's because you might need toilet paper, not because you're on pins and needles awaiting the bi-monthly PBC card live from Las Vegas or New York.
So, if PBC needs a home run, you're not doing that with Mario Barrios vs. Souleymane Cissokho or Raul Curiel or even Conor Benn — you need Pacquiao.
And this might turn out to be a sad state of affairs where we all watch an old man get beaten like Ric Flair in WrestleMania 24, but there's a better chance you watch that than Barrios be competitive with Cissokho.
On merit, Cissokho should get the shot, but he probably can't even sell out your neighbor's backyard. Pacquiao still brings an entire country.
Let's get into my Barrios vs Pacquiao pick and prediction with odds for Saturday night.
Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao Odds
| Barrios Odds | -290 |
| Pacquiao Odds | +220 |
| Over/Under | 10.5 (-135 / +100) |
| Location | Wembley Stadium |
| Bout Time | Approx. 11 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Prime PPV |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday at 7 p.m. ET.
Barrios is 6 feet tall with a near 6-foot reach, and Pacquiao is far from that, with a 5-foot-6 stature and a reach about the same.
This version of Pacquiao doesn't project to be the lightning-fast, angle-creating, volume-punching finisher he once was at his peak, which probably ended 15 years ago, you know, when he was in his 30s.
Pacquiao landed just 16% of his punches in his last fight against Yordenis Ugas. Pacquiao looked washed in that fight, and that was four years ago.
Ugas, the WBA Champion at the time, outlanded Pacquiao, 151-130, en route to a unanimous decision win despite throwing less than half as many punches, 405-815. Ugas landed 37.3% of his shots and even landed 60% of his power shots. Ugas, good as he was, isn't exactly a world beater, and neither is Barrios.
Barrios lost to Keith Thurman in 2022 — someone Pacquiao beat in 2019 when "One Time" was still undefeated.
However, Barrios beat Ugas handily two years after the Pacquiao fight, giving himself a career-defining victory. That secured him the WBC interim title, and he's since been elevated to champion.
Barrios outlanded Ugas 193-of-810 to 101-of-484, and was more accurate with a 24% to 21% advantage.
Barrios vs Pacquiao Pick
- Pick: Barrios 3-Way ML as a Parlay Leg or Straight Bet (-225 on bet365)
- Sprinkle: Barrios to Win in Rounds 7-12 (+250 on FanDuel)
Barrios vs Pacquiao Prediction
Barrios wins by however he wants if he's a serious champion.
Either Barrios jabs his way to a sad, underwhelming unanimous decision, or he actually stops Pacquiao in the later rounds. Pacquiao may show flashes, especially early on, but I think Barrios' length, volume-punching and youth will be too much.
Barrios needs to show that a 46-year-old Pacquiao has no business in the ring with him, but I'm not entirely confident he gets the stoppage. So, Barrios -225 on the three-way moneyline at bet365 will do.
I may also sprinkle Barrios to win between rounds 7-12 at +250. I'd rather play the moneyline and sprinkle on the stoppage than play either the stoppage or decision.
Also, if Pacquiao is aggressive early and provides some moments, I'm betting Barrios live. I'd love for the number to drop below -200.
By the way, an Oleksandr Usyk-Mario Barrios parlay is -150.
Enjoy the fight, and don't go broke!
