This is a rematch we legitimately need.
On August 26, 2023, Oleksandr Usyk (23-0, 14 KOs) and Daniel Dubois (22-2, 21 KOs) competed for the unified world heavyweight title. Usyk won via ninth-round KO, but earlier in the bout, Dubois laid in a controversial, borderline right uppercut that was called a low blow.
It looked low in the moment, but Usyk has "sold" these in the past, and detractors online do accuse him of not liking body shots (who does?).
Ultimately, it was called a low blow — I think correctly, though only Usyk can tell us for sure — and he went down immediately. If it were called a body shot — and thus, a knockdown — I think Usyk bounces back up.
That said, Dubois had a chance to win and didn't.
Since then, both have had elite runs.
Usyk beat Tyson Fury twice in 2024, and Dubois has gone 3-0 with three knockouts, stopping Jarrell Miller — never stopped previously — as well as Filip Hrgovic and, more famously, Anthony Joshua, both of whom were favorites.
The Joshua one was a knockout of the year candidate, and I bet on Dubois to get the stoppage at +600, one of my favorite wins of 2024.
Usyk is 38, though he has just 23 pro fights to Dubois' 24, who's 27, because of an extensive amateur career.
But right now, it's very arguable that Usyk is the pound-for-pound No. 1 boxer in the world, and these are the two best heavyweights.
Let's get into my Usyk vs. Dubois pick and prediction with odds for tonight.
Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois Odds
| Usyk Odds | -300 |
| Dubois Odds | +235 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 (-125 / -100) |
| Location | Wembley Stadium |
| Bout Time | Approx. 4:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | DAZN |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday at 7 p.m. ET.
Usyk, though two inches shorter at 6-foot-3 compared to Dubois, has an equally lengthy 78-inch reach from the armpit to the end of the fist.
Stylistically, Usyk has one of the best combinations of counter-punching and footwork in boxing, which is typical of elite Ukranian fighters — with the recently retired Vasiliy Lomachenko serving as the other prime example.
But even so, he has successfully put bigger, stronger heavyweights on the back foot due to his craftiness. He took the center of the ring against Joshua, Fury and Dubois, backed them up, moving east to west and creating angles that his opponents weren't quick enough to counter, and had his way.
Dubois will not outbox Usyk. Unless Usyk ages from fight to fight in a dramatic way — which I'm not positive didn't happen to Amanda Serrano against Katie Taylor last week despite being younger (hey, styles matter) — then this should remain.
Dubois, though, has frightening, fight-changing power.
The difference between Usyk vs. the recent opposition Dubois has stopped is that Miller, Hrgovic and Joshua are all offense first.
Joshua is the most skilled boxer of them all and actually jabs, counter punches, can defend in range, can stay out of range and use his, so on and so forth.
But against Dubois, he wanted to big-boy him and out-brawl, throwing out all caution. And Joshua is chinny, so it was — frankly — dumb. And he paid for it.
Usyk won't do that.
Usyk vs Dubois Picks
- Parlay Leg: Over 0.5 Knockdowns (-240 on FanDuel)
- Sprinkle: Oleksandr Usyk to Win by Unanimous Decision (+220 on bet365)
- Longshot Spinkle: Oleksandr Usyk to Win Between Rounds 9-12 (+420 on FanDuel)
- Longshot Hedge: Daniel Dubois by KO/TKO (+400 on FanDuel) (if you like Dubois)
Usyk vs Dubois Predictions
I love the run Dubois is on, but stylistically, Usyk is not "tailor-made" for him, so to speak. Still, this is a real "you just never know" spot.
Dubois has to assert himself early, though. If Usyk is taking the center of the ring in the early rounds and breaking Dubois down again, he'll have to mount a serious comeback, and Usyk has never blown a lead in the pros.
I think Usyk wins this by late stoppage or decision. The latter would be an improvement for Dubois, who stopped in Round 9 last time. I also think Dubois is worth a sprinkle to win by stoppage, which, to me, is the only way he can win.
I think Usyk will win, so I'll hedge the unanimous decision and the win between Rounds 9-12. I'll split a half-unit — 0.3 on Usyk by UD at +220 and 0.2 on Usyk via 9-12 round stoppage at +420.
Otherwise, I like over 0.5 knockdowns in a parlay leg. And if you like Dubois, I highly recommend playing him to win by KO/TKO.
By the way, an Oleksandr Usyk-Mario Barrios parlay is -150.
Enjoy the fight, and don't go broke!
