- They've set an over/under of five minutes for him to sink 21 balls, and posted a prop on whether he can sink five in a row.
- Let's do the math to find out where the value lies on the props.
Beat Pat McAfee is back! Well, it was technically back a couple of weeks ago when he did a hockey one, but I didn’t see the lines until it was too late.
Hopefully you all followed my advice in the Pat McAfee cornhole challenge, as the over hit with ease and over 27 cornholes cashed, too, at a nice +380 payout. Don’t want to toot my own horn, but I’m sort of a Beat Pat McAfee wizard.
This Thursday (bet cut-off is at 11 a.m. ET), Pat will be playing beer pong.
How long will it take Pat to clear all 21 cups?
- Over 5 minutes: +130
- Under 5 minutes: -180
Will he get five cups in a row?
- Yes: -180
- No: +130
First thing’s first. Let’s analyze the setup.
21-cup is not an oft-played format, at least where I come from. I’m no frat star, but I played a helluva lot of beer pong in my day. I’ve played 21-cup two or three times at most.
Instead of the standard 4-3-2-1 pyramid, it goes 6-5-4-3-2-1. This means a couple of things. The first handful of shots should be pretty darn easy.
Though not advisable for long term success, as you want to always aim for a specific cup, he could just aim for the center of the massive triangle and likely have it go in on the fly at least bounce into one of the cups.
Secondly, and obviously, it pushes the cups forward. The front few cups are going to be pretty darn close and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat’s strategy is to start from the front and work his way back.
Alright, now for re-racks.
Since he’s getting re-racks at 10, six and three, there shouldn’t be much thought put into this. Standard rack at 10, 3-2-1 at six and a stoplight at three. Honestly, he should be able to get to the first re-rack in like a minute.
Not much focus will be needed and he can get shots off in more of a rapid-fire format and get several in by luck if he wants to.
Once he gets to 10, it still should be fairly easy for a bit, but the fewer cups that remain, the longer he’ll take on each shot (in theory, that is). You can’t nonchalantly shoot balls all willy-nilly. Especially when there are only a few cups left.
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I reckon when he’s still in double digits, McAfee will be firing shots off every three seconds. That is, assuming he has a big container of ping pong balls next to him.
Just picture an NBA 3-point contest, except the shooting motion and time the ball is airborne are both shorter. Boom, boom, boom. Shot after shot. If he gets 20 shots off in the first minute, he just needs to make 55% of them to get to the re-rack, which is definitely doable.
Once he reaches 10 cups, I expect him to slow down by a couple of seconds per shot. If he takes 12 shots in second minute, he would need to make just a third of them to get to that next re-rack.
If he takes 10 shots in the third minute, he needs to make just 30% to get to the final rack.
When he’s down to the last few, depending on how much time he has left, he could be closer to 10 seconds per shot. Say he takes 15 shots in the final two minutes. He would need to hit just 20% to finish off the challenge.
We’re talking about roughly 55-60 shots in 300 seconds, and he needs to make 21 of ’em…
We have some fairly heavy juice on the under, but I believe it is the way to go. I think he can get through the first batch of 11 in a minute or less. After that, he can re-rack and probably get to the six-ball re-rack in potentially another 30-60 seconds.
The only thing that can go wrong is if he gets on a cold streak on the last few balls. We’ve all been part of those games where the final few balls take forever to hit.
Depending on the length of the table, these could take some time. I think it’ll be smooth sailing if he is down to his final re-rack with 90-plus seconds left, but it could get hairy if he gets there at a minute or less.
As for the five-in-a-row prop, I think the plus-money payout for no is enticing. This is a hard feat even for a skilled player during a standard game, especially if we’re talking about a table with some length to it.
The time when he would be able to do this is at the beginning when there are a ton of cups, but I’m guessing McAfee will be coming out of the gate with speed, not precision.
If he doesn’t do it before that first re-rack, his chances go way down given how much farther back the cups will be. It’s certainly not an impossible task, but I wouldn’t touch -180 on “yes”.