After HBO’s The New Pope, the Oscar-nominated Two Popes, and (of course) Conclave, audiences are buzzing about who could next don the white cassock in a prestige drama or stylized satire.
With bettors looking at the next Pope odds markets, the Action Network has compiled a list of actors who could be in line for some on-screen papal portrayal.
Here’s a breakdown of the betting odds for who’s most likely to play the next on-screen Pope — whether in a serious biopic, surreal miniseries, or dark Vatican thriller.
🏆 The Favorite: Pedro Pascal (+200)
Is there anything Pedro Pascal can’t do? The star of The Last of Us, The Mandalorian, and Game of Thrones is the frontrunner at +200 (33.3% implied probability) to take on the papacy next.
Why? Range. Pascal can bring equal parts spiritual depth and meme-worthy charisma, making him a perfect fit for a modern, media-savvy Pope in the style of Jude Law’s Pius XIII. If a studio wants viewers to thirst-follow the Vatican, he’s the guy.
| Actor | Decimal | Fractional | American Odds | Implied Probability |
| Pedro Pascal | 3.0 | 2/1 | +200 | 33.30% |
| Oscar Isaac | 5.0 | 4/1 | +400 | 20.00% |
| Mark Rylance | 6.0 | 5/1 | +500 | 16.70% |
| Tom Hiddleston | 7.0 | 6/1 | +600 | 14.30% |
| Chiwetel Ejiofor | 8.0 | 7/1 | +700 | 12.50% |
| Michael Fassbender | 9.0 | 8/1 | +800 | 11.10% |
| Mads Mikkelsen | 11.0 | 10/1 | +1000 | 9.10% |
| Liam Neeson | 13.0 | 12/1 | +1200 | 7.70% |
| Ciarán Hinds | 15.0 | 14/1 | +1400 | 6.70% |
| Ben Kingsley | 17.0 | 16/1 | +1600 | 5.90% |
🕯️ Serious Contenders
Oscar Isaac (+400)
Isaac has been a fan-cast for just about every intelligent, morally complex male lead in the past five years. He brings gravitas without stiffness, and at +400 he’s a strong second choice to headline a stylish, conflicted papal character.
Mark Rylance (+500)
If you want the slow-burn, cerebral Pope who stares out windows and contemplates mortality, Rylance is your man. A prestige pick for a theological slow drama — think The Crown, but with more incense.
🌀 Dark Horses
Tom Hiddleston (+600)
At +600, Hiddleston would absolutely slay as a mysterious, morally ambiguous Pope. If HBO wants to crank up the surrealism from The Young Pope, his Loki-like presence could deliver.
Chiwetel Ejiofor (+700)
Ejiofor is a compelling pick. Expect his odds to tighten if any studio hints at modernizing the papal archetype.
Michael Fassbender (+800)
Fassbender’s intensity suits a radical, rule-breaking Vatican story—think House of Cards meets Angels & Demons.
🔥 Vatican Noir, Anyone?
Mads Mikkelsen (+1000)
He’s played Hannibal Lecter, a tortured priest, and a Bond villain, so why not a Machiavellian Pope? At +1000, Mikkelsen is your long shot for a cerebral, possibly terrifying Pontiff in a European co-production.
💤 Veteran Value Picks
Liam Neeson (+1200)
Gravitas? Check. Religious roles? Check. Neeson brings weight, but at +1200 the market says he might be too far-fetched unless someone’s shooting Taken 4: Vatican Vengeance.
Ciarán Hinds (+1400) & Ben Kingsley (+1600)
These are your classic “establishment Pope” choices — great for a period piece or biopic. Less buzz, but a high floor. If you're betting on a studio leaning safe, this is your long-value play.
The odds are created for entertainment purposes only. Gambling enthusiasts interested in checking out prediction markets should take a look at this Kalshi referral code offer.
