Football Manager 26’s difficult launch, plus the skipped Football Manager 25, could cost SEGA and Sports Interactive $40 million, according to gaming finance expert Professor Rob Wilson.
In an exclusive interview with The Action Network, Wilson breaks down the fan reaction to FM26 after last year’s missed release. He also says poor results could lead SEGA to force leadership changes at Sports Interactive, a move that might steer the series toward microtransactions and other controversial features.
Read the full interview with Rob Wilson below.
Given how much Sports Interactive will have spent on bigger licenses and their lost year, how much of a hit could they and SEGA be facing with fans unhappy with FM26?
RW: Given the money Sports Interactive have already invested in bigger licenses, plus effectively losing a full year of product development momentum, the commercial impact of fans rejecting FM26 could be very significant.
Being the seventh worst reviewed game on Steam isn’t just bad PR. It is a real commercial problem. A realistic estimate puts the hit to SEGA between $30 million and $40 million this fiscal year once you factor in lower game sales, more refunds, discounting far earlier than planned, lower DLC revenue, and long-term reputational damage that could also hurt FM27.
This won’t bankrupt SEGA, they are far too big for that. But it will likely prompt senior-level intervention and push Sports Interactive into a serious internal reset and reform phase.
With Steam reviews in a rough place, how much is FM as a franchise worth to SEGA? Is it too valuable not to continue even if FM26 struggles after FM25 didn’t come out?
RW: Football Manager is still an extremely valuable franchise that has made hundreds of millions over its lifetime. The audience is incredibly loyal, the niche is very stable, and the value of the licensing and data they’ve built up is hard for anyone else to replicate.
Football Manager isn’t like a normal video game people dip in and out of. For a lot of adults it’s more like a routine or habit they return to every year.
So the logical response isn’t to stop making it. It’s to fix the problems, rebuild trust, and restore quality. If they get it right again, the franchise will continue generating long-term value.
Should FM fans be wary of microtransactions creeping into future FMs to recover lost revenues if SEGA forces a leadership change on SI?
RW: Yes. They should absolutely pay close attention to how the game is monetized going forward. But the sensible first step is optional cosmetic, data, or tool-based add-ons rather than anything that gives players an in-game competitive advantage.
Introducing pay-to-win would damage what makes Football Manager special and would destroy the long-term financial value of the series.
The most likely path is more optional paid features around cosmetics, data, or tools, not changes to the core game that break fairness or competitive balance.
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