Week 3 Fantasy Advice: Answering Your Start/Sit Questions, Analyzing George Kittle, Derrick Henry & More
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers’ George Kittle.
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Fantasy Stock Questions
Buy Or Sell George Kittle?
@ACSnow22 writes: “Start, bench or trade [George] Kittle?”
Previte: Start. I don’t know which tight end you are theoretically benching Kittle for (please don’t say Maxx Williams or Jack Doyle), but don’t do it. I get it — it’s been a rather quiet two weeks, but Kittle remains a top-six play and is in my “Buy Low” column this week. He should be fine season-long, especially against the Packers, who have given up three touchdowns to tight ends so far. Don’t trade him at his nadir.
@ospreyrob2 writes: “Who’s a realistic person to get in return for [George] Kittle?”
Previte: If you absolutely must deal Kittle to someone, I would ultimately try to package him with another player. So, for example, you could broker a deal with the manager in your league who has Noah Fant, Logan Thomas, Dallas Goedert or Tyler Higbee to try to make a modest upgrade at running back or receiver.
Straight up, it’s really difficult to compare values without knowing positional scarcity and scoring in your league, but if you can flip Kittle 1:1 for someone like Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Antonio Gibson or A.J. Brown — who have all been underperforming thus far — I would seriously consider it.
Outlook For The Titans Offense
Ryan writes: “Are you worried enough about Ryan Tannehill to consider replacing him?”
Previte: Yes, and while I don’t think it’s 100% Tannehill’s fault, it doesn’t matter for fantasy purposes. The Titans have allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL so far with nine — that’s tied with the Bengals and behind only the Jets, who have allowed ten. I think this has seriously hurt Tannehill’s performance as a passer thus far.
If you have him, I would consider streaming quarterbacks week-to-week until we see this offensive line perform better in pass protection.
For example, I would start both Teddy Bridgewater vs. the Jets and Daniel Jones vs. the Falcons over Tannehill this week. I would even consider starting Sam Darnold at the Texans and Derek Carr vs. the Dolphins over him. All four of those signal-callers — Bridgewater, Jones, Darnold and Carr — were widely available heading into this waiver wire cycle.
Kris writes: “Should I sell high on Derrick Henry after his monster game?”
Previte: No, unless someone offers you something ridiculous in return. I’m all-in on Henry for the rest of the season. Of course you cannot expect the kind of production we saw in Week 2 every week, but I don’t know who I would flip him for straight up.
If someone were to offer you a ridiculous package deal for Henry, I would consider it. I hate to say “never” or speak in absolute terms, but Henry is as guaranteed as they come with respect to fantasy production — especially with the Titans’ passing game looking as anemic as it has thus far.
Sean writes: “Should I trade Antonio Gibson for Julio Jones if I need a receiver? Half PPR.”
Previte: I do not love the trade, though it depends somewhat on your roster build.
At this point, you are selling low on Gibson after one week in which he was outscored by J.D. McKissic. I admit his usage in that game was a bit peculiar, but he should continue to offer low-end RB1 upside in the right matchups. He’s more valuable, in my opinion, than the second receiver in a Titans offense that has one passing touchdown all year. I don’t think that will necessarily continue to the same degree, but it’s certainly a concern.
Mike Davis Panic Button 2.0
Daniel writes: “Is it time to panic on Mike Davis? Or should we be rostering Cordarrelle Patterson?”
Previte: I got this question last week and my answer hasn’t changed very much. Davis’ start to the season isn’t exactly what we had hoped for as fantasy managers, though it is my belief that better days are ahead. He is coming off of a brutal Week 2 matchup against the Buccaneers in which Atlanta tallied just 55 rushing yards total, 38 of which came from Davis. Davis is currently RB31 in half PPR, which certainly isn’t a total bust yet — especially if you consider where you probably drafted him.
However, I think Patterson is worth rostering, especially in PPR formats. The gadget player won’t take over all of Davis’ rushes out of the backfield, though he may eat into the third-down passing work. He’s an interesting and widely available add off waivers this week.
Roster Or Cut Trey Lance?
@myurow writes: “What do I do with Trey Lance? 1-1 team, streaming QB ([Kirk] Cousins) first two weeks. Keep calm and carry on, or cut bait?”
Previte: It depends if you need the roster space. I’m totally fine with streaming Cousins, especially this week against the Seahawks. However, if you do find yourself needing an extra spot, and assuming this is a one-quarterback league without keepers/dynasty, I would definitely consider cutting Lance. You typically don’t need to roster two quarterbacks in a standard league. If there is a keeper/dynasty element, I would keep Lance though.
Rostering Alexander Mattison As The Dalvin Cook Manager
@matthewjsloan writes: “Would you drop [Kenneth] Gainwell for [Alexander] Mattison if you also roster [Dalvin] Cook?”
Previte: Your question brings up an interesting point about rostering your own backup. Personally, it doesn’t matter if you have Cook or not when assessing Mattison’s value, so the dilemma comes down to Mattison vs. Gainwell.
I digress, and my answer is: it depends.
- If you need a flex play this week in a deeper league, I think Gainwell gives you more guaranteed points since he is in a committee with Miles Sanders. He also has a plush matchup against Dallas’ run defense. Meanwhile, Mattison is the Vikings’ clear-cut backup and thus, will see a trivial workload barring a major injury to Cook. Mattison has seen two attempts (4% share) this season to Cook’s 42 (86% share), while Gainwell has seen 15 attempts (25% share) to Sanders’ 28 (47% share).
- If you are super deep at running back and only need a bench stash for potential upside, I would say adding Mattison makes sense. Both would vault into immediate RB2 consideration if Cook or Sanders were to miss time, though the possibility of Cook missing time is probably higher given he is already banged up.
Week 3 Fantasy Start/Sit Questions
Previte: It’s a borderline coin flip for me since both of them are good starts this week, but I am going with the Browns D/ST. You are correct that the Cardinals defense gets the slight edge in terms of matchup, though both the Bears and Jaguars have scored 17 points per game this year.
I do trust the Bears offense as a whole more, but with the way the Cardinals offense has been playing, I can see this game having shootout potential. Vegas seems to agree, since the Cardinals-Jaguars game has a point total of 52 (tied for the fourth-highest point total of the week) vs. 46.5 points for Bears-Browns.
Nate writes: “Would you start James Robinson or Ty’son Williams this week? 0.5 PPR.”
Previte: Of these two running backs, I would start Ty’Son Williams. The matchup is better in Detroit as opposed to taking on Arizona, and Williams is the top back in a run-heavy Baltimore offense, which is significantly better coached than Jacksonville. Williams is tied with Melvin Gordon as RB11 in half PPR through two weeks, while Robinson is RB42. He has a better matchup, opportunity and track record thus far — he is an easy start over Robinson this week.
beachbod101 writes: “Who to start for Week 3? DeVante Parker or Rondale Moore? Any feedback would be much appreciated!”
Previte: Both have positive matchups, but I am going to say Moore over Parker.
The Dolphins play the Raiders this week, who have been middle-of-the-road against the pass, but Parker has a number of factors working against him. For one, Will Fuller is expected to make his debut for Miami this week, which was supposed to happen last week. Fuller was serving out a six-week suspension that started last season. His addition to the Dolphins’ receiving corps will inevitably cannibalize some targets from Parker and Jaylen Waddle. Second, the Dolphins’ quarterback situation is up-in-the-air after Tua Tagovailoa was injured in Week 2, though it’s unclear if Jacoby Brissett is even a downgrade from Tagovailoa for the Miami pass catchers. This offense was shut out 35-0 last week with Brissett stepping in for Tagovailoa early and has looked pretty anemic overall this year.
On the other side, Moore should feast on the Jaguars’ secondary, who have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game this year. He may be the WR4 in this offense, but it’s a high-volume passing offense which plays a ton of four-wide receiver sets. He also has more targets than DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and A.J. Green. I love Moore for this week and beyond.
@Jjdgolf1 writes: “Need two running backs and a flex: Najee Harris, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Elijah Mitchell, Kenneth Gainwell, Antonio Gibson, Jakobi Meyers, Carlos Hyde, Tony Jones Jr.”
Previte: Najee Harris and Antonio Gibson are your slam-dunk two running backs. Harris is a top-12 play this week against Cincinnati, and Gibson is still a borderline RB1, in spite of getting outscored by J.D. McKissic last week and a tougher matchup on the road in Buffalo.
As for your flex spot, I’m tossing out Jones, Meyers, Gainwell and Hyde right off the bat, so it comes down to Mitchell and Edwards-Helaire. I understand the frustration with Edwards-Helaire, especially after a poignant and costly fumble to effectively end the Chiefs–Ravens game on Sunday night. I don’t think he’s in Andy Reid’s doghouse quite yet, though I am concerned about his rest-of-season usage. Mitchell, on the other hand, is banged up and in an unpredictable Kyle Shanahan-wielded backfield. Both opposing defenses — the Chargers and Packers, respectively — are well below average in terms of stopping the run, so I’ll call that a push. The Chiefs-Chargers game has the highest point total of the week at 56 compared to 49.5 for the Packers-49ers game. Therefore, I am giving Edwards-Helaire the slight edge over Mitchell in your flex position this week.
Fantasy Draft Format
@JamesHBopp writes: “Should more redraft leagues use a third-round reversal instead of a true snake draft?”
Previte: Honestly, I don’t have a strong opinion on it since the only third-round reversal draft I’ve done so far is the Scott Fish Bowl this year. I actually had the No. 1 overall pick (superflex with tight end premium) and went McCaffrey (1.01), Jalen Hurts (2.12), Matt Ryan (3.12), Kyle Pitts (4.01), Terry McLaurin (5.12), Myles Gaskin (6.01), Tyler Lockett (7.12), Mike Davis (8.01), etc. The team isn’t bad at all, and my biggest mistakes were Ryan in the third and Davis in the eighth, neither of which had to do with the 3RR.
As the first pick in a 12-team draft, your average in the first five rounds goes from 29.4 to 31.6, while the 12th pick would go from 31.6 to 29.4, so the impact isn’t as significant as it would seem. It’s a fun way to deemphasizes draft order and balance the league, though I think it’s more relevant in years with a slam-dunk 1.01.