Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott
- There are four player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate for Week 15.
- This piece will focus on Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott, Lions LeGarrette Blount, Bengals QB Jeff Driskel and Redskins WR Jamison Crowder.
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott leads the way as we run down our best Week 15 prop bets.
Already one of the best bets around when it comes to rushing volume, Elliott has recently added “elite passing back” to his resume. Since coming out of the Week 8 bye, only Christian McCaffrey has more RB targets, receptions and receiving yards than Elliott.
That’s where we start our picks, but we’ve got three other value plays for you this week, as well.
We’re coming off a down week at 3-4, but overall we’ve done well at exposing the inefficiencies in the prop market:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 214-96 (67%)
- Article picks: 41-21 (66%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 287-203 (59%)
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Averaging five receptions for 38 yards on the year, there’s no doubt this is a big number to chase for Elliott (via 5Dimes), but the Colts are the team to do it against.
- Indianapolis yields 7.2 receptions to RBs per game, the most in the league.
- They give up an average of 55.1 receiving yards to the position, fifth-most.
Expect the Cowboys to take full advantage of this matchup and feed Elliott through the air early and often.
That was the gameplan for the Texans last week, as Houston fed Lamar Miller fed a season-high six targets against the Colts.
Before that it was T.J. Yeldon (8 targets for 29 yards), Kenyan Drake (6-64), Leonard Fournette (5-56) and Jalen Richard (8-50) all exploiting Indy’s biggest weakness.
Dak Prescott shot an eye-popping 13 targets Elliott’s way last week, and against an offense capable of scoring at home, he should be busy again.
I’d play this number up to 43.5, and at the current line would pay up to -122.