NFL Week 12 Main Slate Player Props: Back the Steady Production of James Robinson (Sunday, Nov. 29)

NFL Week 12 Main Slate Player Props: Back the Steady Production of James Robinson (Sunday, Nov. 29) article feature image
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Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: James Robinson.

NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.

This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.

We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.

Let’s break down five prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 11 main slate:

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Arizona Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds

The Pick: Over 2.5 receptions (-118)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Edmonds is technically the Cardinals’ No. 2 RB, but he’s still seeing plenty of opportunities. He’s played on at least 49% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps in each of the past four weeks, and he’s seen at least three targets in all of those contests. Edmonds has responded with at least three catches in each of those games, and he’s caught at least three passes in eight of his first 10 contests overall. That means this number is very attainable to begin with.

Edmonds should also benefit from his matchup vs. the Patriots. They have been a strong defensive team in the past, but that has not been the case in 2020. New England ranks dead last in Football Outsiders‘ defensive DVOA and  31st in DVOA against the pass.

Edmonds could also see a slightly expanded workload with Larry Fitzgerald out of the lineup. Fitzgerald has seen at least 5 targets in five of his past six games — including a season-high 10 last week vs. the Seahawks — so it’s possible that one of those could find its way to Edmonds vs. the Patriots.

New York Giants QB Daniel Jones

The Pick: Over 24.5 rushing yards (-110)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Jones may not have the reputation as an elite rushing quarterback, but he has done a lot of damage with his legs this season. He’s logged at least 45 rushing yards in five of his past eight games, and he’s coming off a season-high nine carries last week vs. the Eagles. He also managed to score a touchdown on the ground last week, which somewhat makes up for him tripping over himself in his first matchup of the season against Philadelphia:

Jones is in a plus-spot this week vs. the Bengals. Their defensive line ranks last in terms of adjusted line yards allowed, so the Giants’ offensive line should be able to create some holes for Jones and the running backs.

Las Vegas Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow

The Pick: Under 41.5 receiving yards (-112)

FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10

Renfrow has had some moments with the Raiders this season, but his role has diminished as the team has gotten healthier. Henry Ruggs III, Nelson Agholor, and Darren Waller are all clearly above him in the pecking order, and third-round pick Bryan Edwards is also working into the rotation. Add it all up, and Renfrow’s snaps are way down: He was on the field for just 34% of the Raiders’ offensive plays last week vs. the Chiefs.

Renfrow isn’t completely going away, but asking him to rack up more than 41.5 receiving yards is a tough ask. He is a short-yardage WR who is asked to move the chains rather than make big plays. That makes it tough to accumulate yards with getting a bunch of targets. Renfrow has averaged just over 2.5 targets per game over the past four weeks, and he’s unsurprisingly hit the under on the current line in three of those contests.

Jacksonville Jaguars RB James Robinson

The Pick: Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114)

FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10

I’m not sure why this line is so low for Robinson. He has been a workhorse for the Jaguars all season, and his workload has been safe regardless of the game script or who is playing QB. He’s racked up at least 73 rushing yards in each of his past four games, and three of those came with Jake Luton under center. It’s hard to imagine that the Jaguars’ offense will become less efficient this week with Mike Glennon at quarterback, so Robinson appears poised for another busy afternoon.

Robinson’s matchup vs. the Browns is also solid. Cleveland is middle of the pack in terms of rush defense DVOA, but it will be playing without their top defensive lineman this week in Myles Garrett. The former No. 1 overall pick is better as a pass rusher than run defender, but it’s nonetheless a big loss for the Browns’ defense.

New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas

The Pick: Under 68.5 receiving yards (-104)

FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10

I lost with the under on Thomas’ receiving yards prop last week, but I’m going right back to the well. Thomas had his best game of the season last week vs. the Falcons, racking up nine catches for 104 yards on 12 targets. That said, consider me skeptical that he can repeat his production vs. the Broncos. Thomas had an elite matchup last week, and the Broncos represent a much stiffer test. Taysom Hill also played great in that contest, but it seems unlikely that Thomas will continue to produce better with Hill at QB than Drew Brees.

Additionally, there’s a chance that the Saints just might not need Thomas this week. They’re taking on a Broncos team that literally does not have a quarterback on their roster. Every signal caller is on the reserve/COVID-19 list, so it sounds like wide receiver Kendall Hinton, who is on the practice squad, will get the majority of snaps at quarterback. (Hinton played quarterback at Wake Forest.)

Denver could struggle to put up any points, so the Saints could be looking to bleed the clock in early in the second half, which would not benefit Thomas.

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