MLB Betting Tip: Buy Low on Bad Teams During Final Week of the Season

MLB Betting Tip: Buy Low on Bad Teams During Final Week of the Season article feature image
Credit:

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Marlins players celebrate

  • The Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Marlins have all won less than 40% of their games.
  • Using Bet Labs we explain why it has been profitable to buy low on bad teams during the last week of the regular season.

We have entered the final week of the MLB regular season. The first pitch of the postseason will be next Tuesday, but much needs to be decided before the playoffs begin. The NL and AL Central are still up for grabs, with home-field advantage and wild card spots also available.

Teams in the playoff race have clear motivation. Casual bettors would assume clubs with something to play for would be smart bets down the stretch. But they aren’t.

Since 2005, teams with a winning record are 868-691-1 (55.7%) straight up (SU) in Games 155-162, which encompasses the final week of the regular season. A $100 bettor wagering on these potential playoff teams would be down $1,182 according to Bet Labs.

What gives? Oddsmakers understand that the public will want to wager on teams with a winning record and will inflate the lines. This creates an opportunity for contrarian bettors to wager against teams in the playoff hunt in the final days of the regular season.

The optimal situation to bet against teams with a winning record in the final week is to back the league’s worst teams. Bettors should target teams that have won less than 40% of their games.

Since 2005, teams matching this system have gone 58-68 (46.0%) SU. Even though these teams are 10 games under .500, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,596.

There are four teams that have won less than 40% of their games this season: Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Marlins. It is fair to say the 2019 season hasn’t gone well for these clubs.

Recreational bettors expect these teams to be planning vacations as the season winds down, but many can play spoiler. If you aren’t going to make the playoffs the next best thing is keeping another team from reaching the postseason.

Game Matches:

  • Marlins at Mets (Monday-Thursday)
  • Tigers vs. Twins (Tuesday-Thursday)
  • Royals vs. Braves (Tuesday-Wednesday)
  • Marlins at Phillies (Friday-Sunday)
  • Royals vs. Twins (Friday-Sunday)
  • Orioles at Red Sox (Friday-Sunday)

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