Wednesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Red Sox-Phillies, Two Other Games
Maikel Franco. Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys went 3-1 with their Tuesday night plays.
- Sharp action is driving massive reverse line movement on three home teams tonight.
Wiseguys spent last night in Green Dot City, going 3-1 with their Tuesday plays. Sharps were able to cash all three of their totals and almost had a clean sweep, but the Royals (31% bets, +120) blew a 5-4 lead in the eighth inning and lost, 6-5, to the Jays.
Sharps will look to keep the good vibes going tonight.
After analyzing Wednesday’s 14-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m. and 9:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 3:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles
- Sharp angle: Orioles -102
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
The Orioles beat the Mets, 6-3, last night. But because Baltimore has the worst record in baseball (36-84), the public says there’s no way the Birds can win two in a row, especially with the Mets sending Zack Wheeler (7-6, 3.82 ERA) to the mound against Dylan Bundy (7-10, 4.70 ERA).
But sharps aren’t buying the Gambler’s Fallacy. Even though the Orioles have received only 22% of bets, the line has moved bigly toward Baltimore, going from +123 to -101.
This massive reverse line movement is a clear indication that sharps are getting down on Baltimore. Pros at CRIS and BetUS hammered O’s +117 and +120.
Baltimore also fits the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win (+166.62 units since 2005).
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
- Sharp angle: Phillies +103
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
Betting against the Red Sox is something the public just won’t do. Boston is on pace to win 115 games, and recreational bettors will ride them every step of the way.
But sharps are fearless and looking to exploit the heavy bias.
The Phillies are getting only 32% of bets but 59% of dollars, a massive smart money discrepancy. Philadelphia has also moved from +129 to +103 since opening.
Why would the line move in Philly’s favor if nearly 70% of bets are on Boston? Because sharps have been hitting Philly all day: +112 at Pinnacle, +112 at 5Dimes and +108 again at 5Dimes.
It doesn’t hurt that Mookie Betts is out of the lineup either.
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Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres
- Sharp angle: Padres -123
- First pitch 9:10 p.m. ET
The public likes the Angels to complete the three-game sweep tonight. But sharps are confident in the Fathers stealing a win in the series finale.
San Diego is getting only 41% of bets but 78% of dollars, and the Padres have moved from -110 to -123 since opening. This smart money discrepancy and big reverse line movement is evidence of wiseguys fading the trendy dog.
Pro players at CRIS, Greek, BetOnline, Carib and YouWager all hammered San Diego between -111 and -122, triggering five separate bet signals.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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