Monday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Rangers and Astros-Giants
Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus. Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports
- Sharp Report plays went 4-1 over the weekend.
- Wiseguys are getting down on a pair of short home dogs tonight.
Wiseguys had a great weekend, going a combined 4-1 with their Saturday and Sunday plays. Sunday’s play on the Dodgers (39% bets, -107 to -122) was a perfect example of sharps buying low on an undervalued home favorite. Since 2005, home favorites getting 40% or less bets with at least 10-cents of reverse line movement have gone 530-392 (57.5%) for a profit of +37.13 units. If the total is 8 or lower, the record is to 232-153 (60.3%) and +32.21 units.
After analyzing Monday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 8:05 p.m. and 10:15 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
- Sharp angle: Rangers +107
- First pitch 8:05 p.m. ET
Seattle is 64-48 and sends Wade LeBlanc (6-2, 3.95 ERA) to the mound against Martin Perez (2-4, 6.50 ERA) and the 49-64 Rangers. The Mariners are the better team with the superior starting pitcher. Easy M’s win, right? Despite receiving 75% of bets, the Mariners line has remained virtually frozen (-115 to -116). Typically, a team getting such lopsided betting would move from -115 to -120 or -125.
The fact that the line has barely budged raises red flags and signals sharp liability on Texas. The Rangers are only getting 25% of bets but 37% of dollars, indicating smart money in their favor. They’re also divisional dog with a high total (11), a profitable spot since 2005. Sharps at JustBet hammered Texas +115 as well. The JustBet move is especially notable considering it’s up +20.5 units this season.
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Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
- Sharp angle: Giants +131
- First pitch 10:15 p.m. ET
In the most heavily bet late game of the night, more than 70% of bets are taking the Astros as a moderately-high road favorite (-142). However, despite getting 7 out of 10 bets, Houston is only getting half the money. This indicates predominantly Average Joes betting on the Astros, with sharps buying low on home dog San Fran.
Wiseguys at SIA and JustBet got down hard on Giants +140, triggering a pair of reverse line moves. This is another sharp line freeze scenario, with SF only getting 30% of bets and barely budging from +128 to +131. The Giants also fit the profitable Bet Labs system New Series, All Signs Point to Opponent (+182.94 units since 2005). Sharps will be banking on NL Rookie of the Year contender Dereck Rodriguez (5-1, 2.59 ERA) outdueling Charlie Morton (12-2, 2.90 ERA).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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