MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Rockies-Cubs, 2 Other Wednesday Games

Wiseguys gave one unit back to the books yesterday, going 1-2 with their Tuesday plays. The killer was the Rockies-Cubs Over 10.5.

It checked off all the boxes for the sharps and fit their favorite Wrigley Field over system, but the bats came up short and the total landed on 9 (Cubs won 6-3). Onto the next.

After analyzing Wednesday's stacked 15-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a pair of MLB games.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

• Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

Tyler Beede (0-1, 8.63 ERA) vs. Jason Vargas (1-3, 4.46 ERA)

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (8.5)

The Giants went off in the 10th inning last night, scoring six runs to beat the Mets, 9-3, and hand Over 7 bettors an epic sweaty win. Wiseguys see another high-scoring game in the Concrete Jungle tonight.

This total opened at 8.5. Currently 62% of bets are taking the over but it also accounts for 77% of dollars. This bets vs. dollars split indicates moderate public support but also smart money from respected players.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the Over 8.5.

Average Joes are likely leaning over because of last night's result and tonight's pitching matchup (Tyler Beede 8.53 ERA vs. Jason Vargas 4.46 ERA), but sharps are more interested in the edge provided by Mother Nature.

The wind is blowing out to dead center at 11-12 mph, which sharps hope leads to balls flying out of Citi Field. According to our Bet Labs database, the over has won a whopping +110.75 units when the is wind blowing out to center or left at 10 mph or more since 2005.

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians

Martin Perez (7-2, 3.71 ERA) vs. Carlos Carrasco (4-6, 4.98 ERA)

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Twins (moved from +125 to +112)

Sharps cashed their Indians "fade the trendy dog" play last night, but that doesn't mean they're blindly riding the Tribe again tonight. Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. Tonight, they're backing the Twins to rebound and steal the second game of this AL Central series.

This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -135 home favorite and Minnesota as a +125 underdog. Both the public (76% of bets) and the sharps (90% of dollars) are rushing to the window to bet the Twins at plus-money. This heavy one-sided action has forced oddsmakers to move the line bigly toward the Twinkies (+125 to +112).

Normally wiseguys like to bet against the public, knowing that the house always wins and they can capitalize on the bias of casual bettors. However, sharps won't lay off or go the other way just to be stubborn. If they have an edge, they'll bet it regardless of where the public is going.

We've tracked three big steam moves on Minnesota, with two plays coming at MIN +125 and another at +120. We haven't seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Cleveland.

An added bonus for Twins bettors: Laz Diaz is behind the plate tonight. Since 2005, home teams have lost 18.26 units with Diaz calling balls and strikes.

2:45 p.m. ET Update: Carlos Carrasco has been scratched with an injury. Tyler Clippard will start in his place.

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

German Marquez (6-2, 3.48 ERA) vs. Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.02 ERA)

8:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Cubs (stayed at -115)

Chicago took last night's series opener, 6-3. Casual bettors say the Rockies (31-28) and Cubs (33-26) have similar records and Colorado has the edge in tonight's pitching matchup. As a result, this is a prime bounce-back spot for Rocky Mountain High.

But, as always, pro bettors aren't falling into the conventional wisdom trap. They're buying low on the Cubs in a rare contrarian spot at Wrigley Field.

This line opened with the Cubbies listed as short -115 homes favorites and the Rockies as +105 dogs. Currently, 60% of bets are grabbing the plus-money with Colorado, yet we've seen the line stay the same or even move slightly toward Joe Maddon's crew (-115 to -116).

Normally, 60% of bets will cause bookmakers to adjust the odds toward the popular side. The fact that they didn't indicates a sharp line freeze on Chicago, with books afraid to drop the line and hand out a better number to wiseguys fading the trendy dog.

We've tracked a notable reverse line move on the Cubs, without any sharp signals hitting the Rockies.

This spot for Chicago has been a big moneymaker for Goodfellas this season. Since opening day, unpopular favorites (getting less than 50% of bets), have gone 83-53 (61%), winning +14.33 units with a 10.5% return on investment (ROI).