MLB Sharp Report: Pros Doubling Down on Indians-Astros
John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minute Maid Park.
- With 15 games on the board today, sharp bettors have been busy, hitting the Cincinnati-St. Louis & San Diego-Washington moneylines plus both the moneyline & total in Cleveland-Houston.
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Big-time Saturday slate today, folks. Although many people may be focused on the two playoff games in both basketball and hockey, professional bettors have been very busy hitting America’s Pastime.
>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
2:15 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Reds (moved from +129 to +117)
Last night, the RedLegs clobbered the Cards in commanding 12-1 fashion despite receiving just 25% of bets. Although they had a lack of public support, their line did move from +143 to +134 thanks to several bet signals in their favor.
They’re not quite as unpopular today, as they’re getting slightly northwards of 30% of bets. Once again, though, the sharp bettors are in their corner, as a reverse line move has helped shift their line more than 10 cents.
Perhaps sharps don’t trust the Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson, who has some troubling numbers. In 18.1 innings of work on the year, he’s allowed a mighty high eight homers to go along with 12 walks — both very poor numbers.
On the other hand, Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle has a 3.52 ERA, and his impressive K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 numbers suggest that his ERA could be even lower.
Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros
4:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Indians (moved from +128 to +117) and Over (moved from 9 to 9.5)
For the third consecutive day, pros are hitting the Indians at plus money against the Astros. It worked for the first two games of the series, so why not push the envelope?
Shane “The Biebs” Bieber will be taking on Brad Peacock in a battle of back-of-the-rotation starters. Bieber had a lovely 1.71 ERA through his first four starts of the season, but he got roughed up last go around, allowing five earned runs in 2.1 innings.
Sharp bettors are hoping he returns to form, though, as they’ve steamed the Indians twice since opening. Cleveland is getting 41% of bets but a solid 64% of the money.
That’s not the only way the pros are playing this game, though, as the over/under is also on the rise. The over/under opened at nine with a heavily juiced under and even 8.5 at a couple of spots, but it is now up to 9.5.
The over is a bit more popular than Cleveland in terms of bets, as it’s receiving 47%. However, it has gotten a whopping 88% of the money in addition to three bet signals. No wonder there’s been so much movement.
With temperatures in the low- to mid-80s and no chance of rain, Houston should leave the roof open at Minute Maid Park (although they’ve been known to close it without much reason in the past). If the roof is open, the Weather Rating of 64 would be the second highest of the day, behind only that of Cubs-D’Backs.
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
4:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Padres (moved from +158 to +154)
Yesterday, the Nationals opened at -180 with Max Scherzer taking on Matt Strahm before closing at -206. Each starter allowed two runs, but it was the Padres bullpen that finished strong, as San Diego walked away with the 4-3 upset.
Today, we have a similarly lopsided pitching matchup with Stephen Strasburg hosting Eric Lauer. However, sharps have jumped on the Fathers train today.
After opening at -172, Washington is down to -167 despite 62% of bets in their favor. Our dollar percentages show that the money is quite literally flipped, as San Diego is getting 62% of the cash. At the end of the day, cash is more important than tickets, which is why we see this reverse line movement.