Sunday MLB Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction: A Contrarian MLB Betting System, Algorithm Pick (Sept. 11)
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Odds
|Over/Under||8 (o -118 / u -104)|
|Date||Sunday, September 11|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
*Odds via FanDuel as of Sunday morning.
This Sunday matchup lines up with a historically-profitable system that has registered a 7% return on investment since 2005.
That's seven cents in return for every dollar wagered over the past decade, on average.
If you had bet $100 on each game that has fit the betting system over that timeframe, you'd be up about $18,850. That's roughly $1,150 per year.
This algorithm has encompassed more than 2,500 MLB games since 2005 and has gone 1400-1163-120 (55%) over that timeframe. Substantial data sets like this one, of course, ensure statistical significance.
For reference, bettors must win about 52.4% of the time over the long run in order to make a profit on wagers at or around -110.
This line fades the public heavily, according to the Action Network's proprietary tracking data. And that's exactly what this betting trend factors in — totals that have been undervalued in the market by retail bettors.
We don't recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regards to gains over a long time horizon.