Thursday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Yankees-Red Sox and Braves-Mets
Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
- Pro players split their Wednesday plays, going 1-1.
- Thursday, sharps are taking a somewhat contrarian side in the Yankees-Red Sox game.
- Wiseguys are also getting down on a contrarian total play at Citi Field.
Wiseguys split their two Wednesday plays, cashing the Cardinals (-135) but losing the Cubs-Pirates Under (8). The Cardinals were a perfect example of a favorite wiseguy spot: “Fading the Trendy Dog.” This means the public is loading up on the underdog, creating rare contrarian value on the favorite.
Since 2005, home teams getting 35% or fewer bets with at least 10 cents reverse line movement have gone 314-234 (57.3%), winning +27.4 units with a 5% ROI.
After analyzing Thursday’s 12-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
- Sharp angle: Under 8.5
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Public bettors see Jason Vargas’ ERA (8.36) and that’s all they need to know. Easy Over. But wiseguys know there’s much more to making a play than just betting totals based on starting pitcher ERAs. Currently 78% of bets are taking the Over, but 64% of dollars are on the Under.
This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy indicates Average Joe money on the Over and big, sharper wagers going Under. The total opened at 8.5, and sharps at 5Dimes immediately got down hard on the Under. When early public betting pushed it to 9, wiseguys at Heritage and Buckeye pounced on the Under as well. It’s now down to 8.5 (Under -115), indicating it may even fall further to 8.
Unders of 8 or higher getting fewer than 40% of bets have gone 363-287 (55.8%) this season, winning +60.94 units.
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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
- Sharp angle: Yankees +101
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Baseball’s best rivalry returns tonight at Fenway Park. The Red Sox hold a 5.5-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. Public bettors are taking Boston at home as a short favorite, but sharps are eyeing the road divisional dog.
The Yankees are getting only 38% of bets but 53% of dollars, indicating smart money in their favor. Despite receiving 62% of bets, the Sox have fallen from -116 to -109 since opening, evidence of sharp reverse line movement on New York. Pro players at the Greek, Pinnacle and 5Dimes all hammered the Bronx Bombers from +107 to +104, causing New York to fall from +107 to +101.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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