Updated World Series Odds: The Twinkies Are For Real

Updated World Series Odds: The Twinkies Are For Real article feature image
Credit:

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jonathan Schoop, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler.

  • We're a little more than a third into the MLB season and there have been some major changes when it comes to World Series futures.
  • The Dodgers, Twins and Astros are among the biggest risers since the preseason in terms of implied probability.
  • On the flip side, the Indians, Nationals and Red Sox have all taken substantial hits.

Time to check in on those preseason futures. As someone who holds both Indians and Nationals World Series tickets, writing this article was quite painful! At least I still have a nice Twins divisional bet to fall back on, as discussed in this riveting conversation.

We’re at the point of the season when we have a pretty good idea of who’s who. For example, the Dodgers and Astros are good. No surprises there. The Twins — also good. Despite their hot start, the Mariners are undoubtedly bad. The Nats could be good, but it’s quite possible that this just ain’t their year.

Here are the latest odds:

World Series Odds

Risers

Dodgers: +700 to +350 (+9.7% Implied Probability)

How about that Cody Bellinger fella? On pace for 50+ dongs, about 15 WAR, a Gold Glove, etc, etc, etc. He’s led the Dodgers to 41-19 record thus far, which is good for second-best in the bigs.

There are plenty of other folks contributing, but I think the Dodgers are probably most happy with the fact that Clayton Kershaw is healthy (for now, at least) and pitching fairly well. He may be out of his prime, but he’s pitched well enough for the team to have a 9-0 record in his starts.

Things are looking like they were expected to in the NL West, with the Dodgers running away with the division. Meanwhile, the NL East and Central are both tightly contested — also as folks expected before the season. Barring anything crazy, it should be a fairly easy trip to the postseason for LA.

Twins: +2500 to +700 (+8.7% IP)

Look, I thought the Twins would be pretty good. Maybe end up with 88 wins or something like that. They’re on pace for over 110 wins …

(I wish there was a larger variety of Little Big League GIFs to choose from).

I highly doubt they’ll continue to win at this pace, but it’s gotten to the point that they are among the top tier of World Series contenders. It’s possible they’re a team that is better built for the regular season as opposed to a playoff series given their starting pitching depth, but their offense, which has been the best in the league by a fair margin up to this point, is nothing to be shrugged off.

I would still take a healthy Yankees, Astros and potentially even a healthy Indians team over the Twins in a playoff series, but we’ll get there in a few months. As for now, there’s no stopping the Twinkies.

Astros: +600 to +400 (+5.7% IP)

The Astros have managed to dominate, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they hit a bit of a mid-season rough patch. I mean, take a look at this lineup they rolled out yesterday:


Stubbs? Mayfield? Straw? Who the heck are these guys?

With George Springer, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve all sidelined, the ‘Stros will be tested. Luckily for them, they have the fourth-lowest team ERA for starters and best team bullpen ERA. They also have some valuable youngsters that they can call up to the majors or trade if need be.

Whether they hit a rough patch or not, the Astros will be ready to do business come October.

Fallers

Indians: +1000 to +6000 (-7.5% IP)

Yikes! Cleveland is struggling to stay around .500 ball right now and there are plenty of factors at play.

With Francisco Lindor missing the first month, the Indians’ offense was terrible. It still ain’t good, either, as they’ve even had trouble with their new-look lineup. Perhaps most to blame is Jose Ramirez, whom they were relying on to have a big season.

After an 8.0 fWAR season with 39 dongs, Ramirez is hitting .204 with four homers and a .621 OPS. From a 146 wRC+ in consecutive seasons to a 64 wRC+… seriously, what the hell is going on there?

Corey Kluber pitched poorly and then broke his forearm. Trevor Bauer’s ridiculous 2018 campaign is looking more and more like an outlier. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA a hair below 5.

If they can get things together and sneak into the playoffs, I still think they could be dangerous given their pitching staff’s strong history. Just getting into the postseason will be a struggle, though.

Nationals: +1200 to +6000 (-6.1% IP)

The Nationals are basically in the same boat as the Indians … but worse. Well, worse when it comes to their record. While Jose Ramirez and some uncharacteristic results from stud pitchers are to blame for Cleveland, all the fingers can be pointed at Washington’s bullpen.

With a 6.81 ERA, this squad somehow has an ERA a full run worse than the Orioles’. The ORIOLES!!! The third-worst bullpen ERA belongs to the Marlins. You don’t want to be worse than the Orioles or Marlins at any aspect of the game this late in the season.

Because of the Nats’ relief woes, they’re in a real tricky spot. If they don’t play winning baseball in June and July, they could very well be sellers at the deadline. They could also be axing their skipper soon, too.

Red Sox: +700 to +1400 (-5.8% IP)

How ’bout those Red Sox? Pretty mediocre, eh?

A few somewhat-predictable things have happened thus far, with Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez both falling off after ridiculous MVP-worthy campaigns.

Whether you believe in championship hangovers or not, the start of the Red Sox’ season was a prime example of one. Since then, they’ve certainly played better, but have struggled with top-end teams.

Though their bullpen ERA is only about 0.30 runs worse than it was last year, it feels far worse. As someone who watches the Sox each night, there are really only a couple guys who can be trusted with the ball. Last year, guys like Joe Kelly and Ryan Brasier stepped up in the playoffs when Craig Kimbrel struggled. This year, Kelly and Kimbrel are gone and Brasier has three blown saves in nine opportunities.

Catching the Yankees or Rays for the division title looks like a very tall task, especially considering the Yankees are about 50% healthy and still have nearly a double-digit lead. Boston could very well be in for its first experience with the do-or-die Wild Card Game.