The Hungarian Formula 1 Grand Prix is set to run on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET. It will be the fourteenth race of the season and the last before F1 goes into its August summer break.
As the last outing before the month-long stop, the race falls in a key moment of the season. In a track where overtaking is difficult and Saturday's qualifying is key, there's a lot at stake.
Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Hungarian Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.
Hungarian Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
Lando Norris ruined what could've been a perfect three out of three for us in a rain-soaked Belgian GP, once again fumbling the start to gift teammate Oscar Piastri the lead and eventually the race. While the rolling-start screw up could've happened to anyone, I was much more worried about his mistakes later in the race, which have resurfaced rumours he's either not ready or lacks the killer instinct to win the championship.
With Piastri comfortably in the lead, teams dived into the pitstops as the track began to dry up. With no chance of a double stack, McLaren made the correct decision and called Piastri into the pits first for a set of mediums, sending Norris into another full lap on wet tyres. It should've been the race for Piastri there and then, but for a clever call by the Brit's engineer to put on hard tires.
Tire provider Pirelli had brought the C1 compound — the hardest they manufacture — to the race, and it allowed Norris to push while Piastri had to take care of his mediums to make it to the end of the race. So, advantage Norris, right? Well, no.
The Brit made two key mistakes in his chase of the Australian, first going off the track on lap 26 and then locking his brakes on lap 34. This cost him close to two seconds in his chase of Piastri and ended up proving the difference between potentially having DRS on the final couple of laps and just watching his teammate stroll into the checkered flag from a better seat.
With the win in Belgium, Piastri takes a 16-point lead in the Drivers' Championship. Another win, and the Australian will take at least a 24-point lead into the final ten races. That's almost a whole Grand Prix, he can go AWOL and still keep the title challenge open, meaning that Hungary becomes a massive event.
Located on the outskirts of the Hungarian capital of Budapest, the Hungaroring has become one of F1's most traditional venues, third only behind Monaco and Monza as the current track with the most consecutive races held.
It's a high-aero track, on par with Monaco, meaning cars will bring steep-angled wings that produce heavy aerodynamic loads. One of the shortest tracks in the calendar, it runs for 2,722 miles, which translates into 70 laps of racing. It's composed of several slow and medium speed turns, with a short main straight and even shorter bits between turns. That turns it into something of a series of short drag races, where exit speed is far more critical and power and top speed become almost pointless.
Pirelli will be bringing its soft compounds, but the tire producer has alerted that they expect a high degree of degradation if it's a hot race, and you can expect two pit stops for most, if not all, racers.
Formula 1 Predictions: Hungarian GP
Lando Norris – Race Winner (+200, BetMGM)
Ferrari's Charles Leclerc shocked many — including himself — with his pole position on Saturday. Still, while the polesitter has a significant advantage come raceday in Hungary, I think two factors are working against the Monegasque driver this time.
First, the tire degradation problem reported by Pirelli can come back to haunt him, particularly if the light rain that's expected falls way outside the race time. Being fast on Saturday is very different than being fast on Sunday, and he won't be able to sustain that pace if his tires are going off quicker than the two McLarens, which could very well be the case. Additionally, Piastri sitting in second means he's likely to battle hard to keep position, a situation that's never good for drivers that'd be best served by racing off into the distance.
That's where I think Lando Norris stands to gain. His smooth suits the twisty nature of the Hungaroring and it will be kinder on tires, but even more, the Brit knows that's his title challenge gone if he slips against Piastri again. Norris needs a win, and if he can benefit from the top two duking it out in front of him and then benefit when the pit stops come around, he's in with a chance.
Max Verstappen Top 6 (-190, BetMGM)
The four-time defending champion Max Verstappen had plenty to complain about on Saturday, with him admitting that his car has felt bad all weekend long. "There's not been a single lap or a single corner that I've felt good. The whole weekend so far has just been sliding," he told reporters after qualifying.
And yet, this will not be the first or last time the Dutchman has carried a sub-par Red Bull package higher than it's supposed to be. Eighth might be his worst qualifying result of the season, but with only rookie Bortoleto and a very irregular Lance Stroll in front of him to secure this pick, I back him to once again squeeze every bit of performance to land it.
Gabriel Bortoleto Top 10 (-165, BetMGM)
Brazilian Gabriel Bortoleto had a dream Saturday as the rookie achieved a career best qualifying position in Hungary, starting Sunday's race on P7. It bolstered his qualifying record against teammate Nico Hulkenberg and showed great resilience and adaptability after struggling at the start of the weekend.
In most other tracks, I'd argue the Sauber hasn't got what it takes to keep several of the top cars it has behind, but at the Hungaroring's near-Monaco speeds, the talented Brazilian has what it takes to take his second consecutive points finish.
