The Austrian Formula 1 Grand Prix is set to run on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET. It will be the eleventh race of the season, as the European season kicks into full swing until October. At a track where close fighting is expected and drama is the rule, the stakes are as high as ever.
Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Austrian Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.
Austrian Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
Has Lando Norris already thrown the championship away? With over half the season still to go, it sounds incredible to say. Still, the British driver has gone from disappointing to full-on disjointed performances in Canada.
Norris failed to make a move past teammate and championship leader Oscar Piastri for several laps before attempting to go down a Senna-esque gap that was never there. He clashed with Piastri's car, taking himself out of the race and nearly costing McLaren a double DNF.
Taking full responsibility and apologizing to his teammate after the race speaks of a mature person. However, after crumbling under pressure all weekend, more questions than answers remain about Norris' chances.
It was all background noise for a triumphant Mercedes F1 team, which took its first double podium of the season as 18-year-old Kimi Antonelli joined winner George Russell on top.
Max Verstappen, who at no point caused trouble for the Mercedes lead man, took second. It was a deceivingly good result for the Dutchman, who took six points off his gap to title leader Piastri and did well to stay out of trouble with Russell.
As such, F1 arrives at the Red Bull Ring with a lot at stake, and few tracks look as well suited to give answers as the Austrian layout.
Situated in Spielberg, in southern Austria, it's placed between the mountains, with plenty of elevation changes throughout the lap to handle. The track with the fewest turns in the calendar is also the one with the fastest lap and one that favors close fights.
At just under 2,300 ft. above sea level, it's also a special one aerodynamically. The thinner mountain air makes wings and other features less effective, and it also reduces engine power, as there is less oxygen available for combustion. On the flip side, it also means there's less drag, making it easier for cars to chase each other closely and allowing drivers to fight for position.
Pole gives Norris a significant margin for this one, at a track that has an unsuspectedly high pole-to-win conversion ratio compared to Monaco's. Yet his gap to Piastri is a deceiving one, as the Australian had to slow down during his final attempt due to yellow flags. With Norris' recent cookie crumble-consistency level at high-stakes moments, it's looking far from a done deal.
Formula 1 Predictions: Austrian GP
Charles Leclerc Top 3 (-155, BetMGM)
It looks like Ferrari's long-awaited performance gains are here. The team from Maranello had been scrambling to develop an aerodynamic package that would put them back on par with Mercedes since the start of the European season, and the new floor they debuted for Austria appears to have done the trick.
Leclerc splitting the McLarens was helped by a spin by Alpine's Pierre Gasly in the dying minutes of Q3, but the pace to outdo the Mercedes is there, as shown by teammate Lewis Hamilton clinching fourth. With Max Verstappen complaining of an "undrivable" Red Bull car, all that stands between the Monegasque and a fourth podium of the season is himself… and Ferrari's strategy calls.
Fernando Alonso Top 10 (+140, BetMGM)
It looked like dawn was on its way for Aston Martin after Canada, where upgrades to several components looked to put the green cars back in the best-of-the-rest competition, like they were a few seasons back.
Yet the return to Europe hasn't been kind to them. Despite looking like strong Q3 candidates for most of the practice sessions, it all came down to smoke when Lance Stroll was out in Q1, while Alonso couldn't go one better to make it to Saturday's promised land, finishing 11th.
Still, not all that shines on Saturday is gold come Sunday. With the trio of Alpine's Pierre Gasly, Sauber's Gabriel Bortoleto, and Racing Bull's Liam Lawson all standing to lose more than they can gain come race day, I back Alonso to make several gains and take his third consecutive points finish.
Head-to-head Max Verstappen/George Russell: Russell (+160, BetMGM)
Since the race winner is as wide open as day thanks to Norris' tradition of turning Saturday glory into despair, let's look at another bet. In the head-to-head market, we find one that speaks more of Verstappen's outstanding skills than anything else.
The Dutchman was once again the sole Red Bull competitive driver, with Yuki Tsunoda complaining about front-end grip issues for most of the weekend and failing to make it past Q1 for the second time this season.
Most importantly, however, so has Verstappen, who insisted the car's balance was all over the place, and massively influenced by any changes in conditions. Despite placing the RB21 in seventh through sheer will power and driving skill, the four-time world champion suffered the humiliation of becoming the second-best Red Bull family driver on the grid, with former teammate Liam Lawson placing 6th in a Racing Bulls car.
When your rival is a guy they nickname Mr. Consistency, you're in trouble. Unless there's a pitstop blunder or first-turn havoc, I don't see Russell losing out to Max.
