The Mexico Formula 1 Grand Prix is set to run on Sunday at 5 p.m. ET. It will be the 20th race of the season and the second in F1's four-race Americas swing.
After a qualifying session on Saturday that left plenty to talk about, there's a lot to look forward to on Sunday.
Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Mexico Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.
Mexico Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
What a season for all those who became F1 fans after the movie launch. It's all set up for the most unpredictable drivers' championship final stretch since 2007, with Max Verstappen making it a three-horse race when it looked all set for McLaren's Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.
The Dutchman is claiming all the compliments after winning at Austin, his third out of the last four races. There's plenty to commend about his performance. Dominant throughout the weekend, he hardly put a foot wrong on Sunday and rode off into the distance.
Sitting at just 40 points away from the top with five races remaining, he'll still need a good bit of luck to claw back the distance to championship leader Piastri. Even if he falls at the last hurdle, Verstappen will have proven his greatness once again, and we should be thankful for his spicing up of a championship that was tasting rather dull for all neutral fans.
However, I think there's also a lot to be said about Norris's US race. Yes, he was stuck in a battle with Charles Leclerc for arguably a lot longer than he should have. However, he did complete the move on the Ferrari man twice and took a fairly solid second position in a race where Piastri was nowhere to be found, clawing a lot of ground in the standings. He's now just 14 points off the Australian and could take the lead in the championship back in Mexico.
It was all Norris on Saturday at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City. He sat out the first practice session in favor of the McLaren development program and reserve driver Pato O'Ward, as the Mexican driver was allowed to shine in front of his home crowd. When it was time to reclaim his seat, Norris came out flying and landed a fairly comfortable pole, his first since Belgium in July. He took over two tenths from Leclerc in second and nearly five from Verstappen in fifth, while teammate Piastri languished in seventh.
The Hermanos Rodriguez track presents a special challenge for F1, its cars, and its drivers. Sitting at just over 7200 feet above sea level, the air is much thinner than usual. This has a significant effect on aerodynamics and the engine.
For the aero, it makes every device less effective as the air moves faster over the car, generating less pushdown. That's why constructors have brought up their biggest aeropacks, despite it being a mostly fast circuit. For the race, that means efficient cars which can do more with less — like the McLaren or the Mercedes — are going to have the upper hand.
It's also got a big impact on the engine. With thinner air comes less oxygen and therefore less power production, with an emphasis on how much air the turbos can pack into the engine. That explains why we've seen a surge in form by the Ferraris, with arguably the most powerful — if perhaps not the best overall — power package in the series, but the Mercedes engine is not far behind.
Formula 1 Predictions: US GP
Lando Norris – Race Winner (-200, BetMGM)
The Brit has been dominant all weekend, and it'd be a tragedy for him not to take the top spot of the podium in this one. He's got arguably the best package of all in car and engine, and with his two closest rivals mired a few spots behind, it's his time to ride off into the Mexican sunset.
Can he ruin it? Of course he can. He's famously one who can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, with six wins from 13 poles before 2025, but he's now converted four consecutive poles into wins and shown the spirit to fight back more often than he used to.
Lewis Hamilton Top 3 (+100, BetMGM)
I'm taking an absolute punt on this one, given Hamilton's race performance this year. Still, while the seven-time world champion hasn't really matched his teammate's performance all year, I think the combination of track and a recent upswing in communication with his team gives us enough leverage here.
Hamilton sounded incredibly optimistic after Saturday's qualifying, going on to admit he and his team of mechanics have found the way to squeeze the most out of the Ferrari chassis. For a driver who has sounded like he was about to retire after every race for most of 2025, it's a good sign.
Both Drivers to Finish in the Top 6 – McLaren & Ferrari (-110, BetMGM)
Not finding any good value on top-6 or top-10 bets, I'm going for both the McLarens and Ferraris in the top six. At -110, I think this is ridiculously cheap considering all that stands between us and this bet landing is Oscar Piastri taking one Kimi Antonelli out of the way.
The Australian will be desperate to land at least fourth place to prevent Norris from taking the championship lead, so there's plenty of incentive for it, and it's doubtful either of the other cars will drop out that much without some big plot twist.
