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United States Formula 1 Grand Prix Prediction, Pick, Odds for Sunday, October 19

United States Formula 1 Grand Prix Prediction, Pick, Odds for Sunday, October 19 article feature image
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Jerome Miron-Imagn Images. Pictured: Nico Hulkenberg

The United States Formula 1 Grand Prix is set to run on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET. It will be the nineteenth race of the season and the first as F1 returns to the Americas for a four-race swing.

After a hectic Sprint race on Saturday, there's plenty to look forward to on Sunday.

Find my Formula 1 betting preview and United States Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.

United States Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview

Pandora's box has finally been opened in Formula 1. After nearly a whole season of tiptoeing around having two drivers in a championship chase, things are out in the open at McLaren.

Lando Norris' move on the inside of Oscar Piastri at the Singapore Grand Prix earlier this month was the latest in a series of controversial calls by the team, which included warnings against tight racing and even a call for a position switch over a bad pit stop.

The internal war has come at the worst possible time for the Woking-based team. Rivals have largely caught up to what seemed an invincible MCL39 chassis for the first half of the season, so McLaren one-twos aren't the expected result as they were.

While the Papaya team wrapped up the Constructor's Championship at Singapore, the gap has opened for a Max Verstappen miracle in the Drivers' Championship.

It's not been three races where a McLaren has failed to take the checkered flag, with just 55 points between championship leader Piastri and Verstappen. With six races still to go, there's no denying the Dutchman could pull off the miracle, particularly if the McLarens keep taking points off one another.

The Papaya cars' declining advantage was clear for all to see on Saturday's qualifying, where Verstappen secured his third pole position in the last four races, while Norris and Piastri had to wrangle their cars to second and sixth, respectively.

The Circuit of the Americas, often better known by the acronym COTA, is one of the most spectacular tracks in the F1 calendar. Turn one, an uphill, sharp and blind left-hander, has often led to opening lap chaos, but it's also a great overtaking point, as is turn 12 at the end of the back straight.

With a high to medium aerodynamic charge and high tire degradation, it'll give an advantage to the cars with the best setup and drivers with the smoothest style. A speed circuit normally gives an advantage to cars with the more complete package, so expect front-runners to front-run.

Formula 1 Predictions: US GP

Max Verstappen – Race Winner (-175, BetMGM)

The weekend looks set to be another showdown between Verstappen and Norris, with the Brit taking the top spot in Friday's FP1, while the Dutchman took the sprint and main race qualifying poles.

Verstappen, a four-time winner at COTA, has been on pace all weekend. Come Saturday, the Dutchman had the best time in Q1, Q2 and Q3, and put together a nearly three-tenths advantage. With Piastri mired in sixth, it looks like Norris will be his only opposition. If it comes to that, we know who has the upper hand.

Oscar Piastri Top 3 (+140, BetMGM)

COTA has historically been one of the Australian driver's worst tracks, and it showed throughout the weekend. Third in the Sprint qualifying, an unlucky move took him and Norris out of the race, and his Saturday woes continued in qualifying, only able to claim sixth.

Still, Piastri has never been a Saturday specialist, and it's often on Sunday where he finds his pace. With Norris second on the grid, the Australian will be looking to minimize the chunk of his championship lead to could be lost.

The McLaren might not be light-years away from the competition like it was in March, but with the trio of Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and George Russell bound to take time off each other, Piastri could benefit largely.


Nico Hulkenberg Top 10 (-110, BetMGM)

The German veteran was in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons on Saturday, when his failed move on Fernando Alonso took both McLarens out. But Hulkenberg is still rapid, and he showed it earlier on the weekend when he was second on FP1 and then fourth on sprint qualifying.

He'll be starting 11th on Sunday, but stands to benefit largely from any shenanigans occurring to anyone across half the paddock. With such a big lottery ticket, it's hard to think he'll fail to have the nous to cash it.

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