NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks: A Longshot Bet for Tonight’s Federated Auto Parts 400

Sep 21, 2019 07:07 AM EDT

Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: A view of the Monster Energy Cup trophy

  • The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs roll on with tonight's Federated Auto Parts 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN) at Richmond Raceway.
  • Nick Giffen details one longshot to bet for this race.

There are only 36 points-paying races on the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule. With such limited opportunities to bet, it can be hard to refrain from playing multiple drivers every weekend.

However, we should only make bets when we project a positive expected value.

Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 is one of those weekends where it’s hard to find winning value. I’m not projecting a lot of value in the market, for two reasons.

First, favorites typically win at Richmond, which means we need to limit our exposure to longer shots. If we choose a driver with long odds, he needs to be a driver who has shown plenty of upside on a team with winning capabilities.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game

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