The Oklahoma City Thunder (1-2) and Indiana Pacers (2-1) will face off in Game 4 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 6-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread, with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -230 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +190 to pull off the upset.
Can Oklahoma City even the series and reset it back to a best-of-three with a win in Game 4 tonight? Or will Indiana shock the world and take a 3-1 lead on the presumptive champs?
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Friday, June 13.
Thunder vs Pacers Prediction for NBA Finals Game 4
My Pacers vs. Thunder Game 4 best bet is on Indiana to stay under its team total of 110.5 points, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers Team Total Under 110.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Pacers Odds, Picks for Friday, June 13
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 227.5 -110 / -110 | -230 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 227.5 -110 / -110 | +190 |
- Thunder vs. Pacers spread: Thunder -6
- Thunder vs. Pacers over/under: 227.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Pacers moneyline: Thunder -230, Pacers +190
- Thunder vs. Pacers best bet: Pacers Team Total Under 110.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Preview for NBA Finals Game 4
If you would have told the average hardcore basketball fan, “The Pacers will hold a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals,” back in April, let alone in January, very few would have believed you… And yet, here we are.
Indiana is two wins away from its first NBA championship (and fourth pro basketball championship with three titles from the ABA).
The Thunder looked tired and defeated last game. Their backs are against the wall in Game 4 tonight, and they are behind in the adjustments game.
The biggest value of the Pacers stealing the first matchup of this series the way they did, beyond winning one of the four they need to win the title, was that it forced the adjustments game to start sooner.
Mark Daigneault couldn’t risk going down 0-2, so he had to make adjustments ahead of the second matchup. That enabled Rick Carlisle to counter those adjustments in the third game.
An example would be how the Thunder opted for more empty side pick-and-rolls in the second game, which the Pacers countered with more at-level and blitz coverage in the third.
Now it’s Daigneault’s turn to counter the counters to his counters. Aren’t the playoffs fun?
I bet Thunder right out of the gate at -5.5 as soon as Game 3 ended, but I'm logging it at -6 in the Action App because by the time I opened the app the line had already moved.
I thought the Thunder would win this series in five games.
The thinking was that one of the first two games in Oklahoma City would be a blowout (Game 2), and one would be a close game, but one that the Thunder would win. They didn’t, the Pacers stole the first matchup.
I always presumed that the third game would be the best Pacers spot, and I bet them in Game 3.
It was the first Finals home game in 25 years for a basketball-crazy crowd that doesn’t come to regular season games for some reason. So, the Pacers were destined to make adjustments and have a better shooting performance, while Oklahoma City's role players would struggle.
That wasn’t exactly the script last game, but it was pretty close.
I always presumed that the Thunder would win Game 4.
- The Thunder have lost back-to-back games exactly twice all season, and one of them was an April game after they had locked seeding.
- Oklahoma City is too good to fade in both games, even on the road.
- The adjustment curve would mean that Game 4 is the spot for OKC to counter after Rick Carlisle made adjustments to win a near-must-win Game 3.
So, I jumped in and grabbed the first Thunder number I saw.
Since then, I’ve gotten a little worried about it. There are two significant trends that counter one another here, even if the Thunder win outright.
- Since 20023, when a favorite wins in the NBA Playoffs, they cover the spread 78% of the time. That number is 80% over the last 10 years, 81% over the last five years, and 77% this postseason (a notably lower figure but still very high).
* The Thunder are 0-8 (OH-FER!) on the road ATS in these playoffs.
What we can probably extract from this is that the Thunder, in particular, are power-rated a little too high, at least on the road. That makes sense, I don’t have them power rated as strongly as the market does.
Thunder vs Pacers Betting Predictions for NBA Finals Game 4
Thunder Moneyline
So if the number is wrong, then that trend about how favorites that win cover the spread is less meaningful.
On the other hand, if the Thunder were going to cover in a road game, it would likely be this one, facing a 3-1 deficit.
Bear in mind that the Thunder have held multiple-possession leads in each of these games. They have led to the start of the fourth quarter in all three games.
At this point, I think it’s totally fine to back the Pacers, but it’s impossible to count out the Thunder with how these games have gone.
Oklahoma City is unlikely to blow out the Pacers by more than 15 points, which still leaves a healthy margin for a win of more than six, but narrows it quite a bit.
The Thunder struggle to establish the rhythm and flow they want on the road, and are having a nightmare of a time turning Indiana turnovers into points.
So, while I’m locked in on Thunder -6, I’d recommend the moneyline significantly more.
A few more trends here:
- 1-seeds down 2-1 on the road are 11-15 SU and 11-14-1 ATS in Game 4, but 2-0 in the Finals.
- Teams that are 4-seeds or lower and home 'dogs in Game 4 after winning Game 3 are 14-20 SU and 17-15-2 ATS since 2003, and 9-6-1 ATS in the conference finals or Finals.
- No team to win 60+ games has ever failed to cover in nine straight road games since at least 2003. However, the Thunder are already the first to ever fail to cover eight in a row.
Pacers Team Total Under 110.5
The most underrated element in this series is the Pacers’ defense, while the most overrated is the Thunder’s offense. The biggest expected downturn from last game is the Pacers’ offense.
It’s true that the Pacers didn’t shoot well from beyond the arc last game, but they were great on two-point attempts from midrange, especially Tyrese Haliburton, and they got out in transition, which OKC has been good against.
If you like Indiana, you should like the over. If you like the Thunder, you should like the under.
The Thunder are unlikely to win a shootout with these Pacers. The Pacers can win a slugfest with OKC, they did it in Game 1, but again, Oklahoma City led the majority of that game.
The Pacers’ team total under 109.5 is a good way to bet OKC without having to, you know, actually bet on OKC.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 27.5 Points + Assists
Haliburton got loose by firing threes despite a level of contest last game instead of looking for the right pass, and then absolutely slicing the Thunder with floaters off drop pick-and-roll coverage.
His assists were largely influenced by transition (3 assists) and an inattention to detail on spot-ups outside of leveraged plays (pick-and-rolls or ISO), picking up 3 dimes on those as well.
I’m expecting OKC to make adjustments to switch and crowd Haliburton more here.
Alex Caruso Over 12.5 Points + Assists / Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Caruso averages 27 minutes in road playoff games for OKC compared to 22 at home.
He’s the guy who Mark Daigneault turns to in these high-pressure spots on the road.
If there’s an adjustment in the starting lineup, it’s likely to move in Caruso.
He averages 1.5 made threes per game in road playoff wins, right at this number, close enough for me to bet it.
Isaiah Joe Over 2.5 Points
I somehow didn’t bet this last game and was kicking myself.
Joe makes senses in this series and will continue to get minutes as the backup point guard for the Thunder.
Jalen Williams Over 26.5 Points + Assists
The Pacers started blitzing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last game and will likely continue to moving forward.
Shai’s not great at reversing the ball to the weak-side corner for catch-and-shoot-threes under duress. He usually needs to find the connector, who finds someone else.
Jalen Williams is the natural secondary creator to take off pressure, and you saw it with his performance last game (29 points + assists).
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 Points + Assists
A smaller-unit play on a buy-low spot for Hartenstein.
The other natural counter to blitzing SGA is to have him run more short-roll with Hartenstein, who can A.) shoot the floater, B.) pass to the dunker spot, or C.) kick out to the corners.
Thunder vs Pacers Game 4 Best Bets
- Thunder Moneyline (-230)
- Pacers Team Total Under 110.5 (-110)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 27.5 Points + Assists (-120)
- Alex Caruso Over 12.5 Points + Assists (-115) / Over 1.5 3PM (+105)
- Isaiah Joe Over 2.5 Points (-115)
- Jalen Williams Over 26.5 Points + Assists (-120)
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 Points + Assists (-130)
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