The NBA season is here and it’s a great time to get in on futures bets.
Here’s a look at my NBA win total picks and predictions for this season, starting with my favorite (3-star) bets all the way down to my leans.
NBA Win Totals Picks, Predictions, Odds
3-Star Bets
Heat Over 37.5
Moore's Projection: 41
You can’t talk about how the East is terrible and has all these missing stars (Tatum, Haliburton), and then also act like none of these middle teams will fill the void. For me, that team is the Heat.
Miami benefits from what I call the "Fresh Air Effect" this season. Last year was so miserable, dealing with the Jimmy Butler nonsense. Those situations kill locker rooms.
On top of not knowing what’s going on with the team’s leader and best player, and the subsequent media scrutiny, players also worry about whether they’ll be traded in a deal.
Uncertainty means they can’t focus on the game. That’s all gone now with Butler shipped to the Bay.
The addition of Norman Powell is significant here, especially in light of Tyler Herro’s injury.
Powell is more than capable of taking over scoring responsibilities and can manage the production you need from the team’s leading scorer night to night.
The Heat defense struggled the first half of the year, and then predictably settled after the trade.
Expect a bounce-back season from Bam Adebayo, who was still terrific in isolation last year, and with internal development from Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez, and Kel’El Ware, Miami will likely compete for a playoff spot.
Suns Over 31.5
Moore's Projection: 36.4
If you’re going to buy low on teams, it’s not going to feel good. Meet the 2025 Phoenix Suns.
The Suns aren’t tanking, let’s start there.
If the Suns were rebuilding, they would have traded Devin Booker. They are looking to go younger, yes, but they want to compete with Booker.
The Suns lost names this summer, but didn’t lose as much impact. Losing Kevin Durant for Jalen Green and Devin Brooks makes you worse. But it doesn’t make you that much worse when you actually lost the Durant minutes by a point per 100 possessions.
And yes, they were way worse without Durant. But it’s better to use plus-minus to ask the question “Did this work? And if so, how much? And if it didn’t work, how bad was it?”
The formula with Booker, Durant, and Beal did not work. It’s possible that the new version of this team won’t work either, but the question is if it will work five wins worse than last season’s disaster.
The Suns have upgraded significantly defensively. They have long, athletic players all over, added multiple centers, and feature players like Dillon Brooks (who shot 40% from three-point range last season).
I’m not asking you to believe in Jalen Green. He’s an inefficient shoot-first player. But at worst, he's a player who did not interfere with Houston being an elite defense and has on-ball creation skills you need to breach 35 wins.
If you get a good season from Green, and Booker is healthy, there is almost no way they go under.
This is more a bet on Jordan Ott getting the most out of a roster with talented guys with low profiles.
Hawks Under 46.5
Moore's Projection: 38.6
I don’t see it.
I like Jalen Johnson. Who doesn’t? He’s athletic, talented, and a lot of fun.
But Johnson was below the 30th percentile in both mid-range and three-point shooting before his injury.
I like Quin Snyder. Who doesn’t? But for as good a coach as he is, especially defensively, with guys like Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson for a third of the year, Onyeka Okongwu, Clint Capela for rim protection, and wings, the Hawks were 19th in defense per Cleaning The Glass last season.
The big additions for this team over the summer were Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Both are good players. But Porzingis has real issues staying on the floor.
The history of players that Boston has let go with injury concerns is damning (Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart). On top of that, his impact was much less last season, in part due to a mystery illness that he says he’s recovered from but never really explained.
NAW is a great role player, elite at on-ball defense, and a quality shooter. If you add him to good defense, he can help make it elite. But if the Hawks aren’t a good defense, the impact is limited.
They won 40 games last year, so I understand skepticism about them winning one fewer. But they need to win seven more games for this to go over, and I don’t think the roster is well positioned to do so.
I’ll fade the hype.
2-Star Bets
Rockets Under 53.5
Moore's Projection: 51
Teams in this range are particularly vulnerable to underperformance.
Teams with a win total between 49.5 and 54.5 (expected to be a 50-win team, but not dominant) have gone 30-19-1 (60%) to the under since 2011-12. Eleven of the last fourteen teams in this range have gone under, including seven straight.
With Houston, you’re adding Kevin Durant, a 37-year-old player who had Achilles surgery six years ago (and has had an excellent performance record since). He’s going to need nights off.
Durant also hasn’t had the kind of impact you would assume a player of his stature would, especially in recent seasons.
The Fred VanVleet injury is the exact type of injury that doesn’t move a market as much as it should. VanVleet was fifth in on-vs-off-court differential, and second in offensive differential behind Sengun.
The roster also wasn’t built for him to miss time.
Amen Thompson is a darling, and for good reason; he’s awesome. But he’s probably not ready to be lead ball-handler for a 50-plus-win team.
Reed Sheppard is still learning to be an NBA player, and the point guard behind those guys is journeyman Aaron Holiday.
The Rockets also opted for redundancy with bigs, adding Clint Capela to a frontcourt with Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams.
Their two-big lineup is a monster, but it won’t work in every situation, meaning that Capela's salary slot is likely a little wasteful.
Finally, the Rockets were one of the lowest 3-point teams in the league last season, averaging 12.7 makes per game. They lost 9.4 in trades and injury, and Dorian Finney-Smith (who does not have a timetable for return from injury) and Durant only make up 4.7 of that.
Without three-point volume, they could be in a lot of close games, which leaves them vulnerable to luck swings.
I’m fading the big number.
Knicks Under 53.5
Moore's Projection: 56.2
If the logic to fade Houston is because of too much change, the logic to do the same with New York is not enough change.
There’s an algebraic equation you can apply to the Knicks.
If A.) Jalen Brunson plays, and B.) Karl-Anthony Towns plays, then C.) the Knicks can’t defend; 117 defensive rating.
That’s true even with Mitchell Robinson on the floor (120 defensive rating, including the playoffs).
The other problem is that you have to spam Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll actions — like the Knicks did to start last season, to great success — to get the value out of Towns. Otherwise, he’s just kind of there on offense and a defensive liability.
If you spam those actions though, you’re not using Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby to the best of their ability offensively.
You can’t really optimize this roster combination, even with a better offensive coach in Mike Brown.
Throw in the trend above about teams in this win total range, and I’m willing to fade my own projection here.
Cavaliers Over 56.5
Moore's Projection: 60.1
So, I would have assumed that because teams with win totals between 50 and 55 go under, that the higher you go, the more likely they are to go under.
If it’s hard to hit 50 wins under expectation, it has to be even tougher to win 55.
However, that’s not really what the recent data shows.
If we go back to 2011, it does, because those teams are 19-12 to the under. But of the last seven teams with a win total greater than 54.5, four have gone over, including the last three straight (Celtics 2024, Celtics 2025, Thunder 2025).
We’re in a new parity era, but that doesn’t mean everyone is mid; it means the top teams are elite, the middle is super competitive, and the bad teams are atrocious. There are more competitive teams, but still elite squads.
The Cavaliers have everything they need to get this done.
My projection does include Darius Garland and Max Strus missing a third of the season; if they come back sooner, it projects them closer to 65 wins.
The Cavs’ offense should still be a monster even after losing Ty Jerome. They have players like Craig Porter Jr. and Jaylon Tyson who they expect to take steps forward.
They added Lonzo Ball as a shooter and secondary playmaker who can defend. They should be more balanced defensively this season, even if the offense isn’t supernova like last year.
There is nothing about this team that suggests they’ll fall back to earth.
The formula is repeatable, and if anything, they should get internal improvement from Evan Mobley and some of the young guys. They have trade flexibility as well.
Thunder Over 62.5
Moore's Projection: 71
Again, usually I’d balk at these extremely high totals but we’re in a new era.
Of the top three win totals per season, six of the last 10 have gone over (two teams tied in 2022).
This Thunder team is just a machine.
I’ve tried every way from Sunday to try to tear holes in their resume or find something that could derail them. They’re too deep, too talented, with too much internal improvement.
They’re too young for fatigue, too inexperienced to get bored. Their entire culture is about bringing the right work ethic every single day, which means they have almost no screw-around games.
I’m expecting some defensive regression based on their three-point luck last season, but not enough to make a meaningful difference in their defensive standing.
I’m also expecting offensive improvement, with more polish and development, as well as better health.
They’re going to truck their way to 65 wins.
Why not a 3-star bet, then? Because only one team (2024 Celtics) has won 60 games and gone over the next season.
1-Star Bets
Raptors Over 39.5
Moore's Projection: 41.5
I’ve upgraded the Raptors in the preseason, based on both their play style and progression.
They were one of the most intensive tankers last season, benching starters in the fourth quarter of most games no matter how competitive they were.
The Raptors are applying nearly full-court pressure to force turnovers, and after finishing as the No. 2 defense after the All-Star break last year, there’s reason for optimism.
Either the offense is better with Brandon Ingram and a (hopefully) healthier team, or the defense is better with a more aggressive style and internal improvement.
It might honestly be a matter of two teams, with the starters offensively tilted with Immanuel Quickley, Ingram, and RJ Barrett, and the bench defensively stout.
Either way, I've reached the point where I want to take the over here.
Celtics Over 41.5
Moore's Projection: 44.6
Boston is aiming to optimize what they have.
So, the defense will be bad, but they will shoot threes in incredible volume and run in transition.
They want to be one of the fastest teams in the league and take the most threes, and that formula goes a long way in the regular season.
Meanwhile, the idea of Jayson Tatum returning midseason is not the pipe dream it seemed like over the summer.
Tatum had a different type of procedure done to repair his Achilles, and the idea is that it could significantly shorten the return time.
If Tatum returns in January, there’s a pretty strong possibility the team looks for a frontcourt upgrade at the deadline to begin a pivot back to contention.
The East is still weak, and Mazzulla’s three-point obsession remains a little bit of a cheat code. I’ll play a slight over.
Leans
Kings Over 35.5
The number is soft but the vibes are bad.
Domantas Sabonis may seek a trade. Keegan Murray is out to start the year. Their big offseason addition was Dennis Schröder, and this isn’t FIBA. They are also looking to deal Malik Monk.
But this number is really low for a team that still has guys who can score, and played around .500 ball last season despite trading De’Aaron Fox.
Spurs Under 44.5
This team was bad defensively before Wembanyama went down. He looks better than ever, but there’s a good chance the Spurs just don’t have enough around him.
I’m not sold on any of their wings. They have a point guard glut that might be tough to manage.
I don’t know what the Spurs are going to be great at besides “having Wemby.” That also might be enough, though.
Grizzlies Over 39.5
I have the Grizzlies unreasonably high in my projections, even after their catastrophic cluster injuries in the frontcourt.
But I just can’t justify betting on a team starting the season with their top three frontcourt players (Jaren Jackson, Zach Edey, and Brandon Clarke) on the shelf.
Their injury history has been too much of a horror story the last three years to feel good about when it’s already gone bad.
Fully healthy, I think Memphis is a division contender. But they may seriously never be healthy.
