Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Erling Haaland, Visitors in Bundesliga Match (Sept. 11)

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Erling Haaland, Visitors in Bundesliga Match (Sept. 11) article feature image

Alex Gottschalk/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund standouts Axel Witsel, left, and Erling Haaland.

  • Talented Bundesliga sides Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund square off in Saturday's clash.
  • Erling Haaland and the visitor side are slight underdogs, but Anthony Dabbundo loves the value he's getting with them.
  • Check out below why he's backing the Black and Yellows to earn the crucial victory in the German top flight.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Dortmund Odds

Bayer Leverkusen Odds+205
Dortmund Odds+120
Over/Under3.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | TimeSaturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

The Bundesliga returns from the international break Saturday with six matches, including two meetings involving teams from the league's current projected top-five clubs.

The doubleheader begins at 9:30 a.m. ET, with Borussia Dortmund traveling to face Bayer Leverkusen. That contest is followed by a showdown between host RB Leipzig taking on Bayern Munich that's set for a 12:30 p.m. ET. start.

Leverkusen and Dortmund tend to play pretty wide-open, high-octane games. Their two meetings last season ended 2-1 to Leverkusen and 3-1 to Dortmund. And given how these teams have begun the 2021-22 season, there's no reason to not expect more fireworks in this latest matchup.

However, a look at the underlying numbers suggest Dortmund has been the more dominant team in terms of progressive passing, shots and game control. That means their undervalued to take all three points in this confrontation.

Solid Start Seems Like Mirage for Bayer Leverkusen

Leverkusen has two wins and a draw to begin the Bundesliga season, but the performances have been less than stellar. Similar to last year, Leverkusen is running really hot in front of goal. They've scored nine goals, but three of them were own goals and two more came from goalkeeper errors by the opponent.

The attack is otherwise middling in passing, touches and possession in the final third. Leverkusen doesn't have a ton of passers to progress the ball forward, plus they rely heavily on getting their pacy wingers into space.

Leverkusen thrashed Borussia Mönchengladbach and Augsburg on the scoreboard, 4-0 and 4-1, respectively, but the expected goals told a different story. Both games should have been more like 2-1 or 2-2 and Leverkusen hasn't faced a team with the attacking talent that Dortmund has yet.

They have been poor in the air thus far this year, which could be an issue against Dortmund. And the Black and Yellows are one of the better Bundesliga  teams on headers in both penalty areas.

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Manager Rose Seeking Consistency at Dortmund

It's been an up and down start for new manager Marco Rose in charge of Dortmund this season. An opening-day, 5-2 demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt was followed by consecutive losses to Bayern Munich and Freiburg. The Black and Yellows bounced back with a 3-2 stoppage-time win against Hoffenheim. While the results are up and down, the performances have not been.

Dortmund is near the top in every attacking category in the German top flight. The club is third in shots per 90 minutes despite having the third-lowest shot distance in the league. That's similar to what Rose's Gladbach side managed in years past. They have the second-highest shot quality in the first division, plus they're first in passes into the penalty area and second in progressive passes.

The Black and Yellows are second in penalty area and final third touches as well, completing more than enough crosses into the box, and have looked more dangerous on set pieces as well.

The question with Dortmund is always the defense, and that hasn't been that bad either. Allowing too many shots from direct attacks can be an issue, and trying to deal with Leverkusen on the wings will absolutely present challenges.

However, the Black and Yellows are allowing the fewest shots in the Bundesliga per 90 minutes. They're allowing the second-fewest passes and opposition touches in the penalty area. The chances will be there for Leverkusen, but the hosts tends to rely more on longer shots and plenty of volume, which will be tough to come by against Dortmund.

Betting Analysis & Pick

My projections put Dortmund at even money to win away from home against Leverkusen. Despite a concern about the hosts attacking them down the wings where the Black and Yellows have had defensive issues, the visitors have quietly had an excellent start under Rose, based on underlying numbers.

Dortmund should come off the international break and exploit Leverkusen's overachieving — but not particularly good attack — en route to three points and a road win.  Anything +115 or better is the play on Dortmund.

Pick: Dortmund ML (+115 or better)

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