MLS Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes (Sunday, Oct. 11)
Maciek Gudrymowicz/ISI Photos for Getty Images. Pictured: Portland Timbers standout Jeremy Ebobisse.
- Two of the hottest teams in Major League Soccer battle in the week's finale Sunday when the Portland Timbers host the San Jose Earthquakes at Providence Park.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and gives his top picks below.
Portland vs. San Jose Odds
|Portland Odds||-139 [BET NOW]|
|San Jose Odds||+335 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+295 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+106/-143) [BET NOW]|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|TV||MLS Live on ESPN+|
Another busy week in Major League Soccer comes to a close Sunday, with Portland hosting San Jose in the finale at Providence Park.
This Western Conference showdown pits two of the league’s hottest clubs against each other, with both riding impressive unbeaten streaks.
Portland continues to display the form it showed this summer when it rolled to the MLS is Back tournament title. The Timbers, winners of three in a row, remain three points behind first-place Seattle in the conference standings.
On the other side, San Jose is starting to get things together after a brutal run of play. The Earthquakes have won three consecutive matches, highlighted by Wednesday’s 3-0 shutout triumph over Vancouver.
When looking at the statistical data surrounding these clubs, you would expect Portland to be among the league’s best on the numbers.
However, that’s surprisingly not even remotely the case.
The Timbers have a respectable 17.6 xGF on the season, but it goes downhill from there. The Timbers boast a dismal 20.2 xGA for a subpar -2.6 xGDiff and -0.21 xGDiff/90 minutes. Those stats would lead you to believe this team was in the middle of the pack — not three points out of first in the conference.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
On the other side of the pitch, San Jose sits on 18.8 expected goals and a horrific 25.5 expected goals against for a -6.7 xGDiff, along with a -0.52 xGDiff/90 minutes. The Earthquakes’ xGDiff number is the second-worst among the 12 teams in the conference.
With all that said, I’m backing Portland to continue its torrid run in this spot. The Timbers are simply the better club and should have their way against the Earthquakes, who are the Jekyll-and-Hyde club of the entire league.
I’m also playing the total to go over the number as well. However, I don’t like the current line of 3.5 goals, so I will take it down to 3 goals at -155 and look to tack on a live play at over 2.5 goals if I can get a decent price.
Portland and San Jose have combined to score at least three goals in five of their last six meetings, which is a trend I see continuing in this spot.
The Bets: Portland ML (-139); Total Over 3 Goals (-155)
- Toronto FC ML (-120) & Toronto Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-113): These numbers are absolute gifts in my opinion. The Reds, who are coming off back-to-back victories against fellow Eastern Conference powers Columbus and Philadelphia, are far superior in every way.
Alejandro Pozuelo has been nothing short of fabulous for Toronto FC, which faces an FC Cincinnati side sitting in 13th place out of 14 teams in the conference standings.
To make it sound even uglier, Toronto FC is 21 points clear of its opponent. Play both angles with confidence.