‘Game of Thrones’ Death Pool Odds: Predicting the First to Die in Season 8



Nov 13, 2018, 10:45 AM EST
  • Yara Greyjoy is the favorite to be the first character killed in Season 8 at +200. But don't overlook her brother, Theon, at +400 (who was +2000 over the summer).
  • Brienne of Tarth's death (+1800) also makes sense as an Episode 1 storyline, given her romantic history with Jaime Lannister.

Editor’s Note: This article may contain spoilers. When gambling on a scripted show, you need as much information as possible. You have been warned!

Which character in “Game of Thrones” Season 8 will die first?

If you think you know the answer, you can now make some money by wagering on the answer.

The betting board is based upon a character in the story dying. More specifically, the book describes it as, “perish/suffer complete ruin or destruction. Book manager’s decision is final.”

This simply states that if we don’t actually see Stannis Baratheon get decapitated, he may not qualify. In the case of Margaery Tyrell, there is definite complete ruin and destruction.

Let’s take a look at the current odds on the death pool and begin to navigate where there could be a winner:

Yara Greyjoy +200

We are going to start by throwing out every name that ends in Stark, Lannister, and Targaryen. Those deaths will come, especially after the rumored revolt of Tyrion and Sansa. There is also going to be another Dragonpit scene, but I would throw all my chips on this being the long-awaited Cleganebowl between The Mountain and The Hound. That battle should be later in the season.

The first battles will happen in two places, Winterfell (Stark/Targaryen versus the Night King) and Essos (Euron Greyjoy escorting the Golden Company). The Greyjoy storyline is the least important to the series, deeming Euron killing his niece and nephew (Yara and Theon) certain Episode 1 material. Euron will get The Golden Company back to King’s Landing, and Theon’s story is purely meaningless after making up with Jon Snow. I’ll certainly hit Yara with a sprinkle on Theon (+400).

Tormund Giantsbane +800

The exchange between the Hound and Tormund in Season 7 could be the best conversation in the history of Game of Thrones.

The last we saw of Tormund, the wall at Eastwatch was collapsing around him thanks to the Night King. This situation falls under “complete ruin and destruction,” as Tormund should still be alive and right at the forefront of the attack on Winterfell. In the grand scheme of things, Jon Snow has way too many allies backing him up (Davos, Gendry, etc). Most of these characters are expendable and don’t provide value to the late-season setting in King’s Landing. You may wonder about Tormund’s love interest, and that is where we may get our greatest value.

Brienne of Tarth +1800

What is the rule in horror movies? Once there is sex involved, you die immediately. One of the last scenes from Season 7 was Jaime Lannister leaving King’s Landing for Winterfell, where Brienne awaits. It’s been six years since these two shared a hot tub with each other while the sexual sparks flew.

The relationship will be consummated in Winterfell, perhaps in Episode 1. Brienne’s entire role is to protect Arya and Sansa Stark. Through spoilers we know Sansa will take off from Winterfell with Tyrion, while Arya hardly needs anyone to cover her back. This death will sting, but it’s the perfect equation after Jaime Lannister arrives in the North.

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