Broadway is gearing up for the 2025 Tony Awards this Sunday, its major annual awards ceremony celebrating excellence in theater.
With 26 categories spanning top productions and performances to technical and creative achievements, the ceremony sees Maybe Happy Ending and Oh, Mary! as the frontrunners for the night’s top honors.
This article breaks down the nominees and betting odds for the main categories at the 2025 Tony Awards, including Best Musical, Best Play, Best Actress and Best Actor.
The 78th Tony Awards will take place on Sunday, June 8, at 8 p.m. ET at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. They will be broadcast on CBS and Paramount+ and hosted by Cynthia Erivo.
If you're thinking about placing bets on the Tonys, a new operator in the market allows you to wager on the ceremony from all 50 states. Kalshi blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets. Learn more here.
Kalshi offers a variety of Tony Awards markets, including Best Musical and Best Play, as well categories for best performances.
Kalshi users trade positions based on percentage chances, and in the tables below we've extrapolated those percentages into traditional odds you might be familiar with at American sportsbooks.
In addition to Kalshi, Tony Awards enthusiasts can wager on the ceremony at FanDuel in Ontario, Canada.
Tony Awards Odds
Best Play Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Oh, Mary! | -144 | 59% |
| Purpouse | +377 | 21% |
| John Proctor is the Villain | +809 | 11% |
| The Hills of California | +1328 | 7% |
Oh, Mary!, written by and starring Cole Escola, is the clear frontrunner in the category. The play, a black comedy that explores the inner life and repressed dreams of Mary Todd Lincoln in the weeks leading up to Abraham Lincoln’s assassination, has become a box office hit.
Trailing behind but gaining traction with critics is Purpose, a play that dives deep into issues of mental health, race, sexuality, religion, and more, all centered around the lives of the politically prominent, fictional Black Jasper family.
Best Musical Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Maybe Happy Ending | -334 | 77% |
| Death Becomes Her | +567 | 15% |
| Buena Vista Social Club | +1566 | 6% |
| Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical | +2400 | 4% |
| Dead Outlaw | +3233 | 3% |
There’s far less debate in this category, where Maybe Happy Ending is the overwhelming favorite. The story of romance and self-discovery between two HelperBot robots originated in South Korea and has taken Broadway by storm—now poised to do the same at the Tony Awards.
Further back in the race are Death Becomes Her, a stage adaptation of the iconic 1992 film, and Buena Vista Social Club, inspired by the Grammy-winning album and legendary Cuban music group.
Best Actor (Play) Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!) | -488 | 83% |
| George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck) | +1900 | 5% |
| Daniel Dae Kim (Yellow Face) | +1900 | 5% |
| Jon Michael Hill (Purpose) | +2400 | 4% |
| Harry Lennix (Purpose) | +9900 | 1% |
George Clooney directed Good Night, and Good Luck in 2005, a film centered on the clash between journalist Edward R. Murrow and U.S. Senator Joseph McCarthy, known for his anti-communist crusade during the height of the Cold War. This March, Clooney brought a stage adaptation to Broadway, earning strong reviews.
However, the frontrunner isn’t the box office star star but Cole Escola. Their performance as the former First Lady in Oh, Mary! has made the comedian—best known for their cabaret work—a favorite for the honor.
Best Actress (Play) Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Sarah Snook (The Picture of Dorian Gray) | -526 | 84% |
| Laura Donnelly (The Hills of California) | +1567 | 6% |
| LaTanya Richardson Jackson (Purpose) | +2400 | 4% |
| Sadie Sink (John Proctor is the Villain) | +2400 | 4% |
| Mia Farrow (The Roommate) | +9900 | 1% |
The Picture of Dorian Gray is one of the most celebrated novels by Oscar Wilde. A modern adaptation premiered on Broadway in March, starring Sarah Snook, best known for her role in HBO’s Succession.
The Australian actress recently won the Drama Desk Award for her performance and is widely expected to triumph again at the Tonys — despite strong praise for Laura Donnelly and the inclusion of veteran nominee Mia Farrow.
Best Actor (Musical) Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending) | -127 | 56% |
| Jonathan Groff (Just in Time) | +455 | 18% |
| Tom Francis (Sunset Blvd.) | +488 | 17% |
| Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins) | +1900 | 5% |
| Andrew Durrand (Dead Outlaw) | +3233 | 3% |
Darren Criss has had a remarkable career since rising to fame on Glee. A co-founder of his own theater company, Criss earned his first Tony nomination for his role as HelperBot Oliver in Maybe Happy Ending and enters the ceremony as the favorite.
Trailing him is fellow Glee alum Jonathan Groff, who previously won a Tony for Merrily We Roll Along. Third is Tom Francis, who won the Laurence Olivier Award in the UK for Sunset Boulevard and now reprises the role on Broadway.
Best Actress (Musical) Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Blvd.) | -133 | 57% |
| Audra McDonald (Gypsy) | +245 | 29% |
| Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop! The Musical) | +900 | 10% |
| Jennifer Simard (Death Becomes Her) | +1567 | 6% |
| Megan Hilty (Death Becomes Her) | +2400 | 4% |
Former Pussycat Dolls singer Nicole Scherzinger also won a Laurence Olivier Award and now has her sights set on a Tony for her role in Sunset Boulevard, a musical by legendary composer Andrew Lloyd Webber.
Audra McDonald is practically synonymous with the Tonys. She has six wins—more than any other performer—and is the only person to win in all four acting categories. She now aims to add another for her portrayal of Mama Rose in Gypsy, a character based on the real-life mother of burlesque icon Gypsy Rose Lee.
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